Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our final look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for Eurovision week! In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a close look at the final standings, six hours before the Grand Final.
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, United Kingdom are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of around 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if Mae Muller does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Romania. Theodor Andrei found himself in last place just before being eliminated in Thursday’s semi, with odds of 500/1. If Theodor had won Eurovision 2023, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 6 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our third analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?
- Sweden will go into tonight’s show as the overwhelming favourites. Loreen dominating the bookies is something we’ve seen for ages and where the favourite normally loses a lot of ground during Eurovision week – to then often gain it back on Saturday night, Sweden never were in danger. According to EurovisionWorld, “Tattoo” now has a whopping 52% chance of winning tonight.
- Following as the only real alternative according to the bookmakers is “Cha Cha Cha” from Finland. Käärijä has a 22% chance of victory and many are predicting the same thing: Finland will probably win the televote tonight. The question therefore is how Käärijä scored with the juries last night. If they put him anywhere close to Loreen, Helsinki 2024 is on the cards.
- Completing the top three at this point is last year’s winner Ukraine. TVORCHI have been flying under the radar somewhat for a while now, but “Heart of Steel” still seems in contention for tonight. With just a 6% chance, they’re further behind that we may have expected from Ukraine. But don’t rule them out yet – we know how strong a Ukrainian televote might be.
- Host country United Kingdom is clinging on to that top ten at this point. Mae Muller has been losing ground steadily. “I Wrote A Song” may still be considered an outsider for victory, but dropping down to ninth is not a good sign. It is looking increasingly likely that the UK won’t be going for a second consecutive top three position, but if we need a surprise – it may just be this.
- Another potential surprise could come from Belgium. The journey Gustaph has gone through over the past four months has been nothing short of absolutely iconic. The biggest outsider to win a national final in years goes on to slay a semifinal, coming third in our Audience Poll and seventh in the Press Poll. He gains a whopping seventeen spots in a mere week and now finds himself in eleventh place. Can Belgium upset the odds and win?!
The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1||Sweden: Loreen – Tattoo||=||1||1||1||1||1||2|
|2||Finland: Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha||=||2||2||2||2||3||4|
|3||Ukraine: TVORCHI – Heart of Steel||+1||4||3||3||3||2||1|
|4||Israel: Noa Kirel – Unicorn||+3||7||6||8||7||8||7|
|5||Norway: Alessandra – Queen of Kings||+1||6||4||4||5||4||3|
|6||Spain: Blanca Paloma – Eaea||-1||5||5||7||8||9||8|
|7||France: La Zarra – Évidemment||-4||3||10||10||9||11||10|
|8||Italy: Marco Mengoni – Due Vite||=||8||12||12||11||10||9|
|9||United Kingdom: Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song||+1||10||7||6||4||5||6|
|10||Austria: Teya & Salena – Who The Hell Is Edgar?||-1||9||9||9||16||28||25|
|11||Belgium: Gustaph – Because Of You||+17||28||32||33||34||34||35|
|12||Croatia: Let 3 – Mama ŠČ!||+4||16||15||16||17||14||15|
|13||Armenia: Brunette – Future Lover||-2||11||13||13||12||13||14|
|14||Australia: Voyager – Promise||-1||13||18||19||19||16||13|
|15||Czechia: Vesna – My Sister’s Crown||-3||12||8||5||6||7||5|
|16||Switzerland: Remo Forrer – Watergun||-2||14||14||14||13||18||16|
|17||Poland: Blanka – Solo||+7||24||23||21||20||6||12|
|18||Germany: Lord of the Lost – Blood & Glitter||-3||15||20||20||24||21||23|
|19||Slovenia: Joker Out – Carpe Diem||-1||18||29||30||29||25||31|
|20||Cyprus: Andrew Lambrou – Break A Broken Heart||+2||22||27||27||26||26||21|
|21||Estonia: Alika – Bridges||+5||26||22||22||21||19||19|
|22||Moldova: Pasha Parfeni – Soarele şi luna||-3||19||17||17||18||24||30|
|23||Serbia: Luke Black – Samo Mi Se Spava||-6||17||16||15||14||17||18|
|24||Portugal: Mimicat – Ai Coração||+1||25||26||26||25||20||20|
|25||Lithuania: Monika Linkytė – Stay||+2||27||34||31||32||27||24|
|26||Albania: Albina & Familja Kelmendi – Duje||+8||34||35||37||37||37||37|
What do you think? Is Finland vs. Sweden the battle we are going to see tonight or can we expect a different battle with outsiders like Belgium?
Check out the previous articles in this series here:
- 20th February: Ukraine still the early favourites
- 26th February: Sweden take the lead as Poland storm forward
- 5th March: Finland second favourites as Poland collapse
- 12th March: Austria storm top ten as Sweden solidify the lead
- 19th March: Spain’s Blanca Paloma enters top five as Romania hit last place
- 6th May: France’s La Zarra sky rockets into the top three as Georgia’s Iru fades away
Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.
Comments on XTRA Odds: Who are the favourites to win Eurovision 2023 as Belgium storm forward?