Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for its fourth article. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the permutations now all the national…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of around 26/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €26 if La Zarra does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Albina & Familja Kelmendi find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 251/1. If Albina and her family were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €251 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 5 March
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our third analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?
- Sweden still have a very solid lead. Loreen was the runaway favourite to win Melodifestivalen in Stockholm this weekend and it showed with the bookmakers. Since her victory, their odds have started shortening even more. Unless one of the remaining three entries of Georgia, Azerbaijan or Armenia surprise us massively, it’s Loreen who’ll be heading to Liverpool as the #1.
- The best news goes to Austria. Expectations were all over the place for Teya & Salena when they were announced as the entrants for Liverpool. A few months later and “Who the Hell Is Edgar?” has emerged as a proper fan favourite. They’re currently the ninth favourites to win Eurovision, coming from #28 a mere two weeks ago.
- Having a bit of a jojo effect this week is host country United Kingdom. After revealing Mae Muller as their singer, they dropped down to eighth place, but they’ve now recovered slightly to find themselves as sixth favourites to win on home soil. However, that still is two spots lower than they were before revealing “I Wrote a Song”.
- It’s not looking good for the Netherlands. Their decline is once again small, but significant. Ever since releasing “Burning Daylight”, Mia Nicolai & Dion Cooper have drifted with the bookmakers. They lose another three spots this week and now find themselves at #18.
- Lower in the field, there’s good news for Germany. Since choosing Lord of the Lost for Eurovision 2023, the Big Five country has climbed four spots. “Blood & Glitter” is now #20 with the bookmakers. And for a country that’s used to finishing lower than 20th, that sure isn’t bad…
The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1||Sweden: Loreen – Tattoo||=||1||1||2|
|2||Finland: Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha||=||2||3||4|
|3||Ukraine: TVORCHI – Heart of Steel||=||3||2||1|
|4||Norway: Alessandra – Queen of Kings||+1||5||4||3|
|5||Czechia: Vesna – My Sister’s Crown||+1||6||7||5|
|6||United Kingdom: Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song||-2||4||5||6|
|7||Spain: Blanca Paloma – Eaea||+1||8||9||8|
|8||Israel: Noa Kirel – Unicorn||-1||7||8||7|
|9||Austria: Teya & Salena – Who The Hell Is Edgar?||+7||16||28||25|
|10||France: La Zarra – Évidemment||-1||9||11||10|
|11||Georgia: Iru Khechanovi – TBA||-1||10||15||17|
|12||Italy: Marco Mengoni – Due Vite||-1||11||10||9|
|13||Armenia: Brunette – Future Lover||-1||12||13||14|
|14||Switzerland: Remo Forrer – Watergun||-1||13||18||16|
|15||Serbia: Luke Black – Samo Mi Se Spava||-1||14||17||18|
|16||Croatia: Let 3 – Mama ŠČ!||+1||17||14||15|
|17||Moldova: Pasha Parfeni – Soarele şi luna||+1||18||24||30|
|18||The Netherlands: Dion Cooper & Mia Nicolai – Burning Daylight||-3||15||12||11|
|19||Australia: Voyager – Promise||=||19||16||13|
|20||Germany: Lord of the Lost – Blood & Glitter||+4||24||21||23|
|21||Poland: Blanka – Solo||-1||20||6||12|
|22||Estonia: Alika – Bridges||-1||21||19||19|
|23||Azerbaijan: TuralTuranX – Tell Me More||-1||22||23||26|
|24||Ireland: Wild Youth – We Are One||-1||23||22||22|
|25||Iceland: Diljá – Power||+3||28||33||33|
|26||Portugal: Mimicat – Ai Coração||-1||25||20||20|
|27||Cyprus: Andrew Lambrou – Break A Broken Heart||-1||26||26||21|
|28||Denmark: Reiley – Breaking My Heart||-1||27||30||29|
|29||Greece: Victor Vernicos – What They Say||+1||30||35||32|
|30||Slovenia: Joker Out – Carpe Diem||-1||29||25||31|
|31||Lithuania: Monika Linkytė – Stay||+1||32||27||24|
|32||Malta: The Busker – Dance (Our Own Party)||-1||31||29||27|
|33||Belgium: Gustaph – Because Of You||+1||34||34||35|
|34||Latvia: Sudden Lights – Aijā||+1||35||32||34|
|35||San Marino: Piqued Jacks – Like An Animal||-2||33||31||28|
|36||Romania: Theodor Andrei – D.G.T. (Off & On)||=||36||36||36|
|37||Albania: Albina & Familja Kelmendi – Duje||=||37||37||37|
What do you think? Could Loreen actually go on and share the title only Johnny Logan has so far with a double Eurovision victory?
Check out the previous articles in this series here:
- 20th February: Ukraine still the early favourites
- 26th February: Sweden take the lead as Poland storm forward
- 5th March: Finland second favourites as Poland collapse
Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.