XTRA Odds: Ukraine still the early favourites for Eurovision 2023

XTRA Odds are back! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is making a comeback. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at our first ranking of the year. Not many people have placed a bet yet, but we sure can say something about how things are shaping up. From this week onwards, we’ll give you a new XTRA Odds every week!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, France are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of around 26/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €26 if La Zarra does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Albina & Familja Kelmendi find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 251/1. If Albina and her family were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €251 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 20 February

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our starting point assessment. What do we see currently in the odds, so early in the season?

• Last year’s winning country Ukraine are currently in the lead in the odds. TVORCHI and “Heart of Steel” aren’t a fan favourite, but the Ukrainians can not be counted out. Kalush Orchestra’s victory, an hommage to the mothers of Ukraine, had a bizarre televote score. The current war in Ukraine may be playing a role in the expectations for TVORCHI’s televote score.
• Sweden are a Eurovision powerhouse and they’re always high up in the rankings early in the season. Melodifestivalen will choose its winner in three weeks, but the expectations are there. Marcus & Martinus may now be the favourites to represent Sweden, but SVT’s second place here may be thanks to the return of “Euphoria” singer Loreen. We’ll see how the Swedish odds change upon hearing “Tattoo” later this week.
• Completing the top three is Norway. Alessandra Mele has a TikTok hit on her hands which has hit #1 on the Global Spotify Charts already, so she’s got a decent following going to Liverpool. “Queens and Kings” convincingly won the televote in Melodi Grand Prix and all of these factors make her an early favourite for Liverpool.
• Rounding up the top three of already released entries is Czechia. Just behind fourth placed Finland, Vesna take fifth place in the ranking. Their song “My Sister’s Crown” won ESCZ last month and had a few fans thinking we might just be heading to Prague next year. This currently reflects in the Czechs being part of the early favourites for Eurovision 2023.

Full table

The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

[table id=1 /]

Could we potentially be in for a back to back Ukraine win with potential Eurovision winners TVORCHI? Let us know what you think!

Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.