XTRA Odds: Finland second favourites as Poland collapse

Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for its third article. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the permutations since our first ranking of the year. And we have a new #2 in our rankings…

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, France are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of around 26/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €26 if La Zarra does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Albina & Familja Kelmendi find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 251/1. If Albina and her family were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €251 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 5 March

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our third analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?

• Finland have taken another step forward and have passed Ukraine. Käärijä is therefore currently the second favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest with his song “Cha Cha Cha”. As Sweden are the current leaders without having chosen an entry, Finland is the current leader of all chosen songs. Can Käärijä take us back to Helsinki for the second time in Eurovision history?
• Plummeting down the odds hard is Poland. Where they were the big winners last Sunday before the national final, the surprising winner has pretty much put all money flow on hold. Blanka was the jury favourite with her “Solo”, but Polish fans are less than happy about her victory. They’ve dropped from a good #6 to #20 now, with odds still drifting.
• Good news for Georgia! We don’t have the song Iru Khechanovi will be singing in Liverpool just yet, but there’s a good amount of confidence in the Georgian entry. For the first time since 2013 and the second time in their Eurovision history, the Caucasian nation has made it into the top ten with bookmakers. Winning five spots, the former Junior Eurovision winner is now the tenth favourite to win in Liverpool.
• An even larger margin of profit is visible with Austria. Teya & Salena will represent the country with a song they’ll be showcasing next week, on 8th March. They were in the lower parts of the rankings, at #28 last week. However, without much to go on, they’ve now jumped up. The Austrians are this week’s biggest winners, climbing a whopping twelve spots to #16.
• The loss is marginal, but still significant: The Netherlands. “Burning Daylight” has not been the talk of the town since its release and its not really making waves within the fandom. Only Dutch radio seems enthusiastic about the Dutch entry. That much is also visible when looking at the bookmakers. Mia Nicolai and Dion Cooper have dropped three spots. From being close to the top ten, they’re now only at #15.

Full table

The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

What do you think? Could Loreen actually go on and share the title only Johnny Logan has so far with a double Eurovision victory?

Check out the previous articles in this series here:

• 20th February: Ukraine still the early favourites
• 26th February: Sweden take the lead as Poland storm forward

Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.