Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for its second article. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the permutations since our first ranking of the year. And we have a new leader in town… Plus a national final shaking things up in the top!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as eleventh favourites to win. They have odds of around 26/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €26 if La Zarra does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Albina & Familja Kelmendi find themselves in last place at the moment, with odds of 251/1. If Albina and her family were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €251 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 26 February
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our second analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?
- Sweden have taken the lead in the current odds. The change happened the moment SVT revealed a clip of the “Tattoo” rehearsal by Loreen. With six victories to their name, Sweden are always a force to be reckoned with. However, when they send one of the most beloved Eurovision winners directly through to their final, they really seem to power through in the odds.
- Storming forward currently is Poland. They’ll be choosing their entry later today, but they’ve climbed all the way up to #6. That’s a whopping six spots higher than they were just a week ago. It must have something to do with their national final under the catchy title of Tu bije serce Europy – Wybieramy hit na Eurowizję!. A current fan favourite in the selection is classically trained singer Jann and his song “Gladiator”, which may be the reason for the Polish surge.
- Also moving up a spot is Finland. Käärijä achieved an absolute landslide victory in UMK last night, with a whopping 539 points – 387 more than runners-up Portion Boys. “Cha Cha Cha” has also taken the #1 spot in the MyEurovisionScoreboard app and is emerging as a true fan favourite this season. Can the 29-year old bring us back to Helsinki? Bookies currently have Finland as their #3.
- It’s not going all that well for Cyprus. They released a short clip of Andrew Lambrou’s upcoming Eurovision song, “Break A Broken Heart” this week. However, they’ve now dropped five spots since doing so – all the way down to #26. Maybe the full song will change that again on Thursday, 2nd March?
- More positive news lower on the table can be delivered to Slovenia. It’s been a while since the release of Joker Out’s Eurovision entry “Carpe Diem“. Despite overwhelmingly positive reactions by the fans, Joker Out did not crack the top 30 last time around. Now, they’ve climbed six spots to make it to #25.
The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.[table id=3 /]
What do you think? Could Loreen actually go on and share the title only Johnny Logan has so far with a double Eurovision victory?
Check out the previous articles in this series here:
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