Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for its fifth article. In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the permutations the first week after all the national final madness…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of around 26/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €26 if La Zarra does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Romania. Theodor Andrei finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 251/1. If Theodor were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €251 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 19 March
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our third analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?
- Good news for the fans of Spain. Blanca Paloma has moved up into the top five for the first time this season. Right behind Sweden, Finland, Ukraine and Norway – who seem to be forming an unbreakable top four – the fifth spot changes from week to week. Now, it’s “Eaea” by Blanca Paloma. Can she hold on and maybe bring Spain their first victory in 54 years?
- Talking about that top five… it’s Czechia who lose their crown position. Vesna hit their lowest position since we started with XTRA Odds this year. The Czech representatives drop three places and now find themselves in eighth place – still a phenomenal outlook for the country that only has one top ten result to their name.
- There’s always more movement lower in the field. This time, it’s midfield country Iceland. Diljá and her song “Power” have not been gaining major traction in the fandom since winning Söngvakeppnin, but this week, there’s a step forward. Coming from #33 before being selected, the Icelandics now find themselves at #21. They have climbed four spots since last week.
- The wooden spoon of this week goes to Romania. Together with the Albanians, they’ve been the bottom two for a while now. However, since Albania’s revamped version of “Duje” came out, they had a minimal rise to escape the bottom two (#35). Theodor Andrei therefore hits last place this week with his “D.G.T. (Off & On”). The other bottom two spot at this point goes to Latvia.
The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1||Sweden: Loreen – Tattoo||=||1||1||1||2|
|2||Finland: Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha||=||2||2||3||4|
|3||Ukraine: TVORCHI – Heart of Steel||=||3||3||2||1|
|4||Norway: Alessandra – Queen of Kings||=||4||5||4||3|
|5||Spain: Blanca Paloma – Eaea||+2||7||8||9||8|
|6||Israel: Noa Kirel – Unicorn||+2||8||7||8||7|
|7||United Kingdom: Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song||-1||6||4||5||6|
|8||Czechia: Vesna – My Sister’s Crown||-3||5||6||7||5|
|9||Austria: Teya & Salena – Who The Hell Is Edgar?||=||9||16||28||25|
|10||France: La Zarra – Évidemment||=||10||9||11||10|
|11||Georgia: Iru – Echo||=||11||10||15||17|
|12||Italy: Marco Mengoni – Due Vite||=||12||11||10||9|
|13||Armenia: Brunette – Future Lover||=||13||12||13||14|
|14||Switzerland: Remo Forrer – Watergun||=||14||13||18||16|
|15||Croatia: Let 3 – Mama ŠČ!||+1||16||17||14||15|
|16||Serbia: Luke Black – Samo Mi Se Spava||-1||15||14||17||18|
|17||Moldova: Pasha Parfeni – Soarele şi luna||=||17||18||24||30|
|18||Australia: Voyager – Promise||+1||19||19||16||13|
|19||The Netherlands: Dion Cooper & Mia Nicolai – Burning Daylight||-1||18||15||12||11|
|20||Germany: Lord of the Lost – Blood & Glitter||=||20||24||21||23|
|21||Iceland: Diljá – Power||+4||25||28||33||33|
|22||Estonia: Alika – Bridges||=||22||21||19||19|
|23||Poland: Blanka – Solo||-2||21||20||6||12|
|24||Azerbaijan: TuralTuranX – Tell Me More||-1||23||22||23||26|
|25||Ireland: Wild Youth – We Are One||-1||24||23||22||22|
|26||Portugal: Mimicat – Ai Coração||=||26||25||20||20|
|27||Cyprus: Andrew Lambrou – Break A Broken Heart||=||27||26||26||21|
|28||Greece: Victor Vernicos – What They Say||+1||29||30||35||32|
|29||Slovenia: Joker Out – Carpe Diem||+1||30||29||25||31|
|30||Denmark: Reiley – Breaking My Heart||-2||28||27||30||29|
|31||Malta: The Busker – Dance (Our Own Party)||+1||32||31||29||27|
|32||Belgium: Gustaph – Because Of You||+1||33||34||34||35|
|33||San Marino: Piqued Jacks – Like An Animal||+2||35||33||31||28|
|34||Lithuania: Monika Linkytė – Stay||-3||31||32||27||24|
|35||Albania: Albina & Familja Kelmendi – Duje||+1||37||37||37||37|
|36||Latvia: Sudden Lights – Aijā||-2||34||35||32||34|
|37||Romania: Theodor Andrei – D.G.T. (Off & On)||-1||36||36||36||36|
What do you think? Could Blanca Paloma actually be in the running for a shock victory in Liverpool this May? Would it even be a shock if “Eaea” wins Eurovision 2023?
Check out the previous articles in this series here:
- 20th February: Ukraine still the early favourites
- 26th February: Sweden take the lead as Poland storm forward
- 5th March: Finland second favourites as Poland collapse
- 12th March: Austria storm top ten as Sweden solidify the lead
Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.
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