Welcome back to XTRA Odds! Our ultimate look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is back for Eurovision week! In today’s XTRA Odds, we take a closer look at the permutations the first week after the rehearsals…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, United Kingdom are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of around 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if Mae Muller does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Romania. Theodor Andrei finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Theodor were to win Eurovision 2023, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in. The early odds can shift easily when just a few people place a relatively large bet.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Italy and Sweden up there than Albania and Georgia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 6 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not? Today, we’ll be providing you with our third analysis. What do we see currently in the odds?
- It has become a bit of a tradition, but after the rehearsals, it’s France who move forward. La Zarra had an impressive rehearsal from what we’ve seen and that means she has stormed the top three. From our last analysis, she climbs a whopping seven spots with her “Évidemment”. As we say, it’s a bit of a tradition: Madame Monsieur, Bilal Hassani and Barbara Pravi were all top three in the week before Eurovision, with only Pravi actually making it. Can La Zarra materialise this position?
- There’s also positive news for Italy. Marco Mengoni’s return to the Eurovision Song Contest has been highly anticipated for years and now he’s here, there’s no real buzz surrounding him or his entry “Due Vite”. After the rehearsals, the vocal qualities and stage presence Mengoni has, will have catapulted him back up. Italy gain four positions and are now in eighth place.
- Good news for the Big Five just keeps on coming! Germany have won five spots with Lord of the Lost. They’re now in fifteenth place – a very decent position for Germany to be in. “Blood & Glitter” has gained a following over the past few weeks, bringing them much higher than earlier in the season.
- “Carpe Diem”, so seize the day, because Slovenia are the biggest winner of the past weeks. Slowly but steadily, Joker Out have risen from the depths of 29th place all the way up to #18. A rise of a massive eleven spots is nothing to be underestimated. Can the relatively simple staging actually help the Slovenians?
- Less good news for Georgia. The release of “Echo” was highly anticipated and Iru was a frontrunner for a while, even making it into the top ten at some point. However, they’ve lost ground in the past weeks and days. Iru is no longer in the top ten and not even in the top twenty. “Echo” drops from eleventh all the way to 23rd. Can she still make the final?
- Azerbaijan has dropped lower than they ever have before. TuralTuranX’s “Tell Me More” hasn’t yet managed to strike a chord with the Eurovision betting family. They’ve dropped nine spots – from #24 to #33.
The table below displays the positions we see on EurovisionWorld today.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1||Sweden: Loreen – Tattoo||=||1||1||1||1||2|
|2||Finland: Käärijä – Cha Cha Cha||=||2||2||2||3||4|
|3||France: La Zarra – Évidemment||+7||10||10||9||11||10|
|4||Ukraine: TVORCHI – Heart of Steel||-1||3||3||3||2||1|
|5||Spain: Blanca Paloma – Eaea||=||5||7||8||9||8|
|6||Norway: Alessandra – Queen of Kings||-2||4||4||5||4||3|
|7||Israel: Noa Kirel – Unicorn||-1||6||8||7||8||7|
|8||Italy: Marco Mengoni – Due Vite||+4||12||12||11||10||9|
|9||Austria: Teya & Salena – Who The Hell Is Edgar?||=||9||9||16||28||25|
|10||United Kingdom: Mae Muller – I Wrote a Song||-3||7||6||4||5||6|
|11||Armenia: Brunette – Future Lover||+2||13||13||12||13||14|
|12||Czechia: Vesna – My Sister’s Crown||-4||8||5||6||7||5|
|13||Australia: Voyager – Promise||+5||18||19||19||16||13|
|14||Switzerland: Remo Forrer – Watergun||=||14||14||13||18||16|
|15||Germany: Lord of the Lost – Blood & Glitter||+5||20||20||24||21||23|
|16||Croatia: Let 3 – Mama ŠČ!||-1||15||16||17||14||15|
|17||Serbia: Luke Black – Samo Mi Se Spava||-1||16||15||14||17||18|
|18||Slovenia: Joker Out – Carpe Diem||+11||29||30||29||25||31|
|19||Moldova: Pasha Parfeni – Soarele şi luna||-2||17||17||18||24||30|
|20||Ireland: Wild Youth – We Are One||+5||25||24||23||22||22|
|21||The Netherlands: Dion Cooper & Mia Nicolai – Burning Daylight||-2||19||18||15||12||11|
|22||Cyprus: Andrew Lambrou – Break A Broken Heart||+5||27||27||26||26||21|
|23||Georgia: Iru – Echo||-12||11||11||10||15||17|
|24||Poland: Blanka – Solo||-1||23||21||20||6||12|
|25||Portugal: Mimicat – Ai Coração||+1||26||26||25||20||20|
|26||Estonia: Alika – Bridges||-4||22||22||21||19||19|
|27||Lithuania: Monika Linkytė – Stay||+7||34||31||32||27||24|
|28||Belgium: Gustaph – Because Of You||+4||32||33||34||34||35|
|29||Iceland: Diljá – Power||-8||21||25||28||33||33|
|30||Denmark: Reiley – Breaking My Heart||=||30||28||27||30||29|
|31||Greece: Victor Vernicos – What They Say||-3||28||29||30||35||32|
|32||Malta: The Busker – Dance (Our Own Party)||-1||31||32||31||29||27|
|33||Azerbaijan: TuralTuranX – Tell Me More||-9||24||23||22||23||26|
|34||Albania: Albina & Familja Kelmendi – Duje||+1||35||37||37||37||37|
|35||San Marino: Piqued Jacks – Like An Animal||-2||33||35||33||31||28|
|36||Latvia: Sudden Lights – Aijā||=||36||34||35||32||34|
|37||Romania: Theodor Andrei – D.G.T. (Off & On)||=||37||36||36||36||36|
What do you think? Could La Zarra actually be in the running for a shock victory in Liverpool next week? Would it even be a shock if “Évidemment” wins Eurovision 2023?
Check out the previous articles in this series here:
- 20th February: Ukraine still the early favourites
- 26th February: Sweden take the lead as Poland storm forward
- 5th March: Finland second favourites as Poland collapse
- 12th March: Austria storm top ten as Sweden solidify the lead
- 19th March: Spain’s Blanca Paloma enters top five as Romania hit last place
Be sure to stay updated by following @ESCXTRA on Twitter, @escxtra on Instagram, @escxtra on TikTok and liking our Facebook page for the latest updates! Also, be sure to follow us on Spotify for the latest music from your favourite Eurovision acts. As well as YouTube to see our reactions to the news in the run up to the 2023 Eurovision season.
Comments on XTRA Odds: France’s La Zarra sky rockets into the top three as Georgia’s Iru fades away