In less than a week, rehearsals will get underway in Rotterdam. This week, we’ll be bringing you two updates to the XTRA Odds. In this first update, we see two major changes in the top ten comparing to our last update… Iceland and Daði Freyr have made a comeback in our top five, but someone else made a comeback in the top ten as well. Read more below!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 3 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇮🇸 Storming the top five again is Iceland. Last year’s favourite and winner of many 2020 votes, Daði og Gagnamagnið, were on a bit of a slippery slope earlier in the season. In our last article, 10 Years was in eighth place. However, it’s starting its revival slowly, but steadily. Daði Freyr has moved up to fifth place. We know what he’s capable of live, we know what to expect. Is safety being rewarded here?
- 🇮🇹 Now, we don’t necessarily see it in the rankings, but we do see it in the odds: Italy are storming forward. Måneskin are still in fourth place, but where they had odds of 11/1 two weeks ago, they’re now down to 5/1 with some bookmakers. Malta are pulling away at the top, but France, Switzerland and Italy are now incredibly close together. Can Zitti e buoni enter the top three next week?
- 🇨🇾 Re-entering the top ten and definitely gaining more attention is Cyprus. Elena Tsagrinou and her El Diablo seem to be the biggest winners from the pre-parties. Elena has shown that she can perform her Eurovision entry in a capable manner, which may have been a question mark for some fans. She fell out of the top ten in the past few weeks, but is now back at a solid #9. With some bookmakers, she’s ahead of the two in front of her: Lithuania and Sweden. So the sky is the limit for Cyprus.
- 🇬🇷🇲🇩 It is not a good week for the Dream Team. Greece is this week’s biggest loser: Stefania conquered her spot in the top ten last time, but has already left again. Her Last Dance is now in fourteenth. A similar loss of four spots can be found in Moldova, the other Dream Team entry. Natalia Gordienko and Sugar were stable at #16, but now find themselves at #20. And even worse, Estonia now only have Georgia below them, as Uku Suviste slips down to #38… Kirkorov, Kontopoulos and Sharon Vaughn are not happy campers.
XTRA Odds: 3 May
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.
|1. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3||3||2||2|
|3. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2||2||3||3|
|4. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||5||5||4||4|
|5. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||+3||8||7||7||7||8|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-1||4||4||4||5||5|
|7. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||-1||6||6||6||6||6|
|8. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||-1||7||8||8||8||7|
|9. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||+3||9||9||11||12||12|
|10. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||-1||11||12||9||9||9|
|11. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||+2||10||10||12||13||13|
|12. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||-1||12||11||10||10||11|
|13. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||+1||16||16||15||15||14|
|14. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||-4||15||14||13||11||10|
|15. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||=||13||13||14||14||15|
|16. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+2||19||19||18||17||18|
|17. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||24||19||18||17|
|18. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||-1||17||17||17||19||19|
|19. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||+1||18||18||20||20||20|
|20. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-4||14||15||16||16||16|
|21. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||+1||20||20||21||21||22|
|22. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||-1||33||31||29||29||21|
|23. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||=||21||21||22||22||23|
|24. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+3||27||26||26||25||27|
|25. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||-1||22||22||23||23||24|
|26. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||+4||30||27||28||31||30|
|27. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||-2||23||23||24||24||25|
|28. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||25||27||28||28|
|29. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||=||31||33||30||30||29|
|30. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||+1||29||29||31||27||31|
|31. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||-5||34||30||25||26||26|
|32. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||28||32||32||32|
|33. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||+3||38||35||35||35||36|
|34. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-1||25||32||33||33||33|
|35. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||=||39||37||34||37||35|
|36. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||+2||37||38||38||38||38|
|37. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+2||40||39||39||39||39|
|38. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||-1||36||36||37||36||37|
|39. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||-5||32||34||36||34||34|
What do you think about this week’s betting odds? Can Daði og Gagnamagnið or Elena Tsagrinou push forward even more for Eurovision 2021? Let us know!