The pre-season building up to the actual Eurovision Song Contest has never been this empty. It also leads to the simple conclusion that the odds aren’t really changing all that much. Except for one country this week…: Serbia and their Hurricane. And we have a new country in the top ten, just like last week! It’s time for XTRA Odds.
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Måneskin does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 18 April
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇷🇸 We have to start this week with our biggest winners: Serbia. Hurricane only received a mellow first response to their new entry Loco Loco, but have suddenly found themselves on the rise: A leap from #29 all the way up to #21. There is an explanation behind this climb for Hurricane. It’s most likely due to the staging being teased last week, where Sanja Vučić announced Hurricane would step away from the 80s vibe of their music video.
- 🇬🇷 As we said in the intro, we have a top ten newcomer. Greece have entered, coming in at #10 – from #11 last week. It’s still thanks to last week, when Dutch media suggested the Greek performance for Rotterdam will include something we’ve never seen on a Eurovision stage before. Last Dance is now the tenth favourite song to win the contest in Rotterdam. Stefania will perform the song live for the first time this week, so let’s see what the odds do then.
- 🇳🇱 The Netherlands are going a little less well with Jeangu Macrooy. They were last week’s biggest winners, climbing from #31 to #27. However, the enthusiasm was short-lived. Birth Of A New Age is now back at #31. Last week, there was no clear reason for the rise, so it’s fair to say that this week is just another blip. Jeangu’s odds will most likely keep changing a bit as the weeks go by.
- 🇮🇱 Back on April 5th, Israel had just released the revamp of Set Me Free. She jumped a mighty five spots that week, from #24 to #19. Ever since, Eden Alene has been creeping up the scoreboard. The changes are not that significant now, but she does manage to clim another spot, from #18 to #17 this week. Can she come closer to the top fifteen?
XTRA Odds: 18 April
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.
|1. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||1||1|
|2. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3||3||2||2|
|3. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2||2||3||3|
|4. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||5||5||4||4|
|5. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||=||4||4||4||5||5|
|6. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6||6||6||6|
|7. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||+1||7||8||8||8||7|
|8. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||-1||8||7||7||7||8|
|9. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||12||9||9||9|
|10. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||+1||15||14||13||11||10|
|11. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||-1||12||11||10||10||11|
|12. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||=||9||9||11||12||12|
|13. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||=||10||10||12||13||13|
|14. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||+1||16||16||15||15||14|
|15. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||-1||13||13||14||14||15|
|16. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||=||14||15||16||16||16|
|17. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||+1||24||24||19||18||17|
|18. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||-1||19||19||18||17||18|
|19. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||17||17||19||19|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||18||20||20||20|
|21. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+8||33||31||29||29||21|
|22. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||-1||20||20||21||21||22|
|23. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||-1||21||21||22||22||23|
|24. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||-1||22||22||23||23||24|
|25. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||-1||23||23||24||24||25|
|26. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||=||34||30||25||26||26|
|27. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||-2||27||26||26||25||27|
|28. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||25||27||28||28|
|29. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+1||31||33||30||30||29|
|30. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||+1||30||27||28||31||30|
|31. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||-4||29||29||31||27||31|
|32. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||28||32||32||32|
|33. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||=||25||32||33||33||33|
|34. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||=||32||34||36||34||34|
|35. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+2||39||37||34||37||35|
|36. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||-1||38||35||35||35||36|
|37. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||-1||36||36||37||36||37|
|38. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||=||37||38||38||38||38|
|39. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||=||40||39||39||39||39|
What do you think about the current betting odds? Is Hurricane climbing so much justified? Let us know!