Betting Odds

🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: Hurricane for Serbia this week’s biggest winners

Stefania rises into the top ten with Hurricane now at #21

The pre-season building up to the actual Eurovision Song Contest has never been this empty. It also leads to the simple conclusion that the odds aren’t really changing all that much. Except for one country this week…: Serbia and their Hurricane. And we have a new country in the top ten, just like last week! It’s time for XTRA Odds.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Måneskin does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 18 April

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

  • 🇷🇸 We have to start this week with our biggest winners: Serbia. Hurricane only received a mellow first response to their new entry Loco Loco, but have suddenly found themselves on the rise: A leap from #29 all the way up to #21. There is an explanation behind this climb for Hurricane. It’s most likely due to the staging being teased last week, where Sanja Vučić announced Hurricane would step away from the 80s vibe of their music video.
  • 🇬🇷 As we said in the intro, we have a top ten newcomer. Greece have entered, coming in at #10 – from #11 last week. It’s still thanks to last week, when Dutch media suggested the Greek performance for Rotterdam will include something we’ve never seen on a Eurovision stage before. Last Dance is now the tenth favourite song to win the contest in Rotterdam. Stefania will perform the song live for the first time this week, so let’s see what the odds do then.
  • 🇳🇱 The Netherlands are going a little less well with Jeangu Macrooy. They were last week’s biggest winners, climbing from #31 to #27. However, the enthusiasm was short-lived. Birth Of A New Age is now back at #31. Last week, there was no clear reason for the rise, so it’s fair to say that this week is just another blip. Jeangu’s odds will most likely keep changing a bit as the weeks go by.
  • 🇮🇱 Back on April 5th, Israel had just released the revamp of Set Me Free. She jumped a mighty five spots that week, from #24 to #19. Ever since, Eden Alene has been creeping up the scoreboard. The changes are not that significant now, but she does manage to clim another spot, from #18 to #17 this week. Can she come closer to the top fifteen?

XTRA Odds: 18 April

As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.

For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.

Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.

CountryEntryChange21/0328/0305/0411/0418/04
1. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse=11111
2. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà=33322
3. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers=22233
4. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni=55544
5. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old=44455
6. SwedenTusse – Voices=66666
7. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque+178887
8. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years-187778
9. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel=1112999
10. GreeceStefania – Last Dance+11514131110
11. San MarinoSenhit – Adrenalina-11211101011
12. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo=99111212
13. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side=1010121313
14. RomaniaROXEN – Amnesia+11616151514
15. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman-11313141415
16. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar=1415161616
17. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free+12424191817
18. UkraineGo_A – Shum-11919181718
19. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari=1717171919
20. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place=1818202020
21. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco+83331292921
22. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-Tock-12020212122
23. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers-12121222223
24. AustraliaMontaigne – Technicolour-12222232324
25. AustriaVincent Bueno – Amen-12323242425
26. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I Stand=3430252626
27. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side-22726262527
28. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden=2825272828
29. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate+13133303029
30. IrelandLesley Roy – Maps+13027283130
31. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age-42929312731
32. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising=2628323232
33. PolandRafał – The Ride=2532333333
34. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – You=3234363434
35. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme+23937343735
36. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – Omaga-13835353536
37. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky One-13636373637
38. SloveniaAna Soklič – Amen=3738383838
39. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma=4039393939

What do you think about the current betting odds? Is Hurricane climbing so much justified? Let us know!

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