It’s time for XTRA Odds – our weekly look at the betting odds with the bookmakers! Once again, not a whole lot has changed to upset the odds. Just like last week, though, we see quite a few changes – even in the top five.
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Måneskin does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 11 April
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇫🇷 The two-horse race at the top of the ranking has become a three horse race now! France have overtaken Switzerland and now find themselves in the #2 spot. This is not down to Switzerland losing ground, but moreso with France’s odds shortening a lot in the past week. The top three of Destiny, Barbara Pravi and Gjon’s Tears is too close to call. A possible explanation for this shift is the live performances of Voilà Barbara Pravi delivered on TV, in France and Spain, this past week, as well as the acoustic version she released: The magic is still there. Can France do the double of JESC and ESC?
- 🇬🇷 Also clearly on the rise is Greece. They’ve gained two spots, climbing from #13 to #11. In Stefania’s case, it’s not hard to understand where the change is coming from. Dutch media suggested the Greek performance for Rotterdam will include something we’ve never seen on a Eurovision stage before, hyping Last Dance ahead of May. Her odds are still shortening, meaning the top ten may be on the horizon for next week.
- 🇳🇱 The biggest climb this week can be found lower on the scoreboard, at #27. Host country the Netherlands fell outside the top 30 last week with Jeangu Macrooy and his Birth of a new age. This week, he’s the biggest winner, gaining four spots to reach #27. There’s no explanation to be found regarding his rise, so this may just be down to a small recovery after his fall in the past couple of weeks.
- 🇦🇿 Several countries, such as Spain and Ireland, lose spots this week. However, in the top twenty with the bookmakers, there’s just one entry that loses more than one spot: Azerbaijan. Efendi’s decline isn’t drastic: She drops from #17 to #19, but there is a possible explanation for it. The performance she delivered on Azerbaijani TV during the show Səhər Mərkəzi was greeted with criticism. Not because of the lipsync, but because of the choreography, which was deemed rather static by some fans.
This week’s betting odds ranking
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.
| Country | Entry | Change | 21/03 | 28/03 | 05/04 | 11/04 |
| 1. Malta | Destiny – Je me casse | = | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2. France | Barbara Pravi – Voilà | +1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 3. Switzerland | Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers | -1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4. Italy | Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni | +1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 5. Bulgaria | VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old | -1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 6. Sweden | Tusse – Voices | = | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 7. Iceland | Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years | = | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8. Lithuania | The Roop – Discoteque | = | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 9. Norway | TIX – Fallen Angel | = | 11 | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| 10. San Marino | Senhit – Adrenalina | = | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| 11. Greece | Stefania – Last Dance | +2 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| 12. Cyprus | Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo | -1 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 13. Finland | Blind Channel – Dark Side | -1 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| 14. Russia | Manizha – Russian Woman | = | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 15. Romania | ROXEN – Amnesia | = | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| 16. Moldova | Natalia Gordienko – Sugar | = | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 17. Ukraine | Go_A – Shum | +1 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 18. Israel | Eden Alene – Set Me Free | +1 | 24 | 24 | 19 | 18 |
| 19. Azerbaijan | Efendi – Mata Hari | -2 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| 20. Belgium | Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place | = | 18 | 18 | 20 | 20 |
| 21. Croatia | Albina – Tick-Tock | = | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| 22. United Kingdom | James Newman – Embers | = | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| 23. Australia | Montaigne – Technicolour | = | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 |
| 24. Austria | Vincent Bueno – Amen | = | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
| 25. Portugal | The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side | +1 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 |
| 26. North Macedonia | Vasil – Here I Stand | -1 | 34 | 30 | 25 | 26 |
| 27. The Netherlands | Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age | +4 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 27 |
| 28. Denmark | Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden | -1 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 28 |
| 29. Serbia | Hurricane – Loco Loco | = | 33 | 31 | 29 | 29 |
| 30. Germany | Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate | = | 31 | 33 | 30 | 30 |
| 31. Ireland | Lesley Roy – Maps | -3 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 31 |
| 32. Latvia | Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising | = | 26 | 28 | 32 | 32 |
| 33. Poland | Rafał – The Ride | = | 25 | 32 | 33 | 33 |
| 34. Georgia | Tornike Kipiani – You | +2 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 34 |
| 35. Czech Republic | Benny Cristo – Omaga | = | 38 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| 36. Estonia | Uku Suviste – The Lucky One | +1 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 36 |
| 37. Spain | Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme | -3 | 39 | 37 | 34 | 37 |
| 38. Slovenia | Ana Soklič – Amen | = | 37 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| 39. Albania | Anxhela Peristeri – Karma | = | 40 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
What do you think about the current betting odds? Is Barbara Pravi’s climb into the top two justified? Let us know!
