It’s time for XTRA Odds – our weekly look at the betting odds with the bookmakers! Apart from a couple of live performances, not a whole lot has happened in this past week. However, contrary to last week, when we hardly saw any changes with the bookmakers, this week, there’s some movement in the market…
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Barbara Pravi does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 5 April
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇳🇴 Starting off this week is Norway, as there’s good news for TIX. He and his Fallen Angel have climbed from 12th to 9th. TIX was one of the most discussed acts of the week, as NRK released a documentary about him. In the documentary, TIX speaks out about his mental health issues, which also threatened to affect his performance and participation in MGP. The perseverance and highlighting of the very good public reaction may have shifted some focus towards Norway.
- 🇸🇲 Last week, we already made the prediction that San Marino would probably have entered the top ten by the time we did this article. It turns out that this is indeed the case: At the expense of both Finland and Cyprus, who drop out of the top ten, Senhit (potentially ft. Flo Rida) claims #10. It is the first time since 2013 that San Marino managed to be in the top ten at any point during the season. Good news on the horizon for Senhit?
- 🇮🇱 Sometimes a revamp can definitely help you gain a little attention. Israel have managed to do just that. Eden Alene released the new version of Set Me Free. It took some time to get them going, as the revamp came out on 26th March. Israel have climbed from #24 to #19, a big leap that costs several countries a position.
- 🇲🇰 It already started last week and the rise keeps on going: North Macedonia, who were down in 34th two weeks ago are now at #25, coming from #30 last week. Another five spots up for them, which means they, in the past two weeks have more momentum than most other countries. The reconfirmation of their participation may still be the cause of this.
- 🇱🇻 After all the good news, there’s always room for some bad news as well. This week, it’s coming from Latvia. Samanta Tina and her song The Moon Is Rising fall outside the top 30 and now find themselves back at #32. There’s no clear reason as to why Latvia are falling behind in the betting odds, but it’s not a good sign…
This week’s betting odds ranking
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.
|1. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1|
|2. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2||2|
|3. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3||3|
|4. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||=||4||4||4|
|5. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||5||5|
|6. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6||6|
|7. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||=||8||7||7|
|8. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||8||8|
|9. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||+3||11||12||9|
|10. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||+1||12||11||10|
|11. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||-2||9||9||11|
|12. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||-2||10||10||12|
|13. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||+1||15||14||13|
|14. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||-1||13||13||14|
|15. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||+1||16||16||15|
|16. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||15||16|
|17. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||17||17|
|18. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+1||19||19||18|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||+5||24||24||19|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||-2||18||18||20|
|21. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||-1||20||20||21|
|22. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||-1||21||21||22|
|23. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||-1||22||22||23|
|24. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||-1||23||23||24|
|25. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||+5||34||30||25|
|26. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||=||27||26||26|
|27. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||-2||28||25||27|
|28. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||-1||30||27||28|
|29. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+2||33||31||29|
|30. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+3||31||33||30|
|31. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||-2||29||29||31|
|32. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||-4||26||28||32|
|33. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-1||25||32||33|
|34. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+3||39||37||34|
|35. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||=||38||35||35|
|36. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||-2||32||34||36|
|37. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||-1||36||36||37|
|38. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||=||37||38||38|
|39. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||=||40||39||39|
What do you think about the current betting odds? Is TIX’s climb into the top ten justified? Let us know!