It’s time for XTRA Odds! After the exclusion of Belarus, we now have all entries for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest confirmed and we love to look at what the bookmakers think! This year, we’re back once more with XTRA Odds and will provide you with a weekly update. Today, we make our second analysis: Where do we stand, roughly one week after hearing all songs for the Eurovision Song Contest 2021?
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, France are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Barbara Pravi does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and San Marino.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 28 March
In every article we post about the odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. After just one week of having all songs out in the open and no preview parties to look forward to, the changes are minor. There are just a few songs that need some extra attention.
- 🇲🇹 First up, we need to look at our leaders: Malta. Last week, Destiny and Je me casse overtook Gjon’s Tears for first place whilst preparing this article. They have managed to stabilise at the top with their odds shortening ever since. The gap to Switzerland is ridiculously small, but Malta are a stable #1.
- 🇲🇰 Major improvement this week is only to be found at the bottom of the scoreboard: Vasil from North Macedonia has climbed four spots this week. A potential explanation for this could be found in the reevaluation that happened this week. There was a sigh of relief in the fandom when MRT confirmed that the protests and petitions did not lead to a withdrawal of the Balkan nation. They rise from #34 to #30.
- 🇵🇱 On the negative side of the scoreboard, it’s all eyes on Poland… Rafał and his song The Ride fail to gain any momentum. They were at a decent #25 last week, but the mediocre response and lack of attention for the Polish entry will have led to a major decline. They’re this week’s biggest losers, finding themselves seven spots lower at #32.
- 🇸🇲 A small positive to highlight is San Marino. The fact that Flo Rida may actually be at Eurovision has led to a small revival of interest for the microstate. They’re creeping up the scoreboard and are about to enter the top ten, at the expense of Blind Channel from Finland. Senhit (potentially ft. Flo Rida…) will be someone to look out for in the next week: Can Adrenalina storm the top ten with bookmakers?
Our baseline measurement
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.
|1. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1|
|2. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2|
|3. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3|
|4. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||=||4||4|
|5. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||5|
|6. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6|
|7. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||+1||8||7|
|8. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||-1||7||8|
|9. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||=||9||9|
|10. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||=||10||10|
|11. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||+1||12||11|
|12. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||-1||11||12|
|13. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||=||13||13|
|14. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||+1||15||14|
|15. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||15|
|16. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||=||16||16|
|17. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||17|
|18. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||18|
|19. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||=||19||19|
|20. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||=||20||20|
|21. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||=||21||21|
|22. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||=||22||22|
|23. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||=||23||23|
|24. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||24|
|25. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||+3||28||25|
|26. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+1||27||26|
|27. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||+3||30||27|
|28. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||-2||26||28|
|29. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||=||29||29|
|30. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||+4||34||30|
|31. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+2||33||31|
|32. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-7||25||32|
|33. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||-2||31||33|
|34. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||-2||32||34|
|35. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||+3||38||35|
|36. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||=||36||36|
|37. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+2||39||37|
|38. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||-1||37||38|
|39. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+1||40||39|
What do you think about the current odds? Is Vasil’s climb for North Macedonia a good sign? Let us know!