XTRA Odds: Daði Freyr storms back into top five

Elena Tsagrinou reclaims her spot in the top ten for Cyprus

In less than a week, rehearsals will get underway in Rotterdam. This week, we’ll be bringing you two updates to the XTRA Odds. In this first update, we see two major changes in the top ten comparing to our last update… Iceland and Daði Freyr have made a comeback in our top five, but someone else made a comeback in the top ten as well. Read more below!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 3 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

XTRA Odds: 3 May

As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available. You can also see the changes, compared to the previous week.

For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.

Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.

CountryEntryChange21/0328/0305/0411/0418/04
1. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse=11111
2. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà=33322
3. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers=22233
4. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni=55544
5. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years+387778
6. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old-144455
7. SwedenTusse – Voices-166666
8. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque-178887
9. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo+399111212
10. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel-11112999
11. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side+21010121313
12. San MarinoSenhit – Adrenalina-11211101011
13. RomaniaROXEN – Amnesia+11616151514
14. GreeceStefania – Last Dance-41514131110
15. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman=1313141415
16. UkraineGo_A – Shum+21919181718
17. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free=2424191817
18. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari-11717171919
19. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place+11818202020
20. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar-41415161616
21. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-Tock+12020212122
22. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco-13331292921
23. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers=2121222223
24. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side+32726262527
25. AustraliaMontaigne – Technicolour-12222232324
26. IrelandLesley Roy – Maps+43027283130
27. AustriaVincent Bueno – Amen-22323242425
28. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden=2825272828
29. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate=3133303029
30. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age+12929312731
31. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I Stand-53430252626
32. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising=2628323232
33. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – Omaga+33835353536
34. PolandRafał – The Ride-12532333333
35. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme=3937343735
36. SloveniaAna Soklič – Amen+23738383838
37. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma+24039393939
38. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky One-13636373637
39. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – You-53234363434

What do you think about this week’s betting odds? Can Daði og Gagnamagnið or Elena Tsagrinou push forward even more for Eurovision 2021? Let us know!

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