🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: A first look at the 2021 favourites

It’s time for XTRA Odds! With 39 out of a possible 40 entries now confirmed, it’s a good moment to have a look at who’s hot and who’s not. In 2019, we introduced XTRA Odds to keep you up to date with the latest trends with bookmakers. This year, we’re back once more and will provide you with a weekly update. Today, we make our baseline measurement: Where do we stand, roughly two months before the Eurovision Song Contest 2021?

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, France are noted as third favourites to win. They have odds of 8/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €8 if Barbara Pravi does indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and San Marino.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 21 March

In every article we post about the odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. However, analysing a baseline measurement means we need to look at the big favourites – establishing who are close together at the top, but also which countries are lower on the list than they usually are. So here goes!

🇲🇹 Already somewhat of a favourite last year, it’s Destiny from Malta in first place. Her odds are almost even to Gjon’s Tears’, so there’s a good chance that Malta and Switzerland will continue to battle for that #1 spot. Je me casse has gone down well with the fans and it shows. Last year, Destiny found herself in the lower end of the top ten after she released her song.
🇨🇭 Currently in second place, we see Switzerland. Their entry, Tout l’univers by Gjon’s Tears is receving a lot of backing right now. You can still get a bet in at 7/2 for Switzerland, which isn’t bad for a favourite. It shows us the race is still wide open, but for the third year in a row, the Swiss are proving they’ve learnt how to do Eurovision recently. They are incredibly close to Malta, but it seems momentum is on Destiny’s side now and Gjon’s Tears’ odds are drifting ever so slightly.
🇫🇷 There’s a bit of a trend going on with French lyrics being predicted to be successful this year. Behind the French language song from Switzerland and the French title from Malta, we see… France! Barbara Pravi has been around for a while and seems to be the early favourite to keep momentum going. Her odds are shortening again and she might be creeping closer to Destiny and Gjon’s Tears with her Voilà.
🇲🇩 Natalia Gordienko was in the bottom eight last year for the bookmakers, but this year, Moldova has more support. Their new song Sugar has made it to #14. She is one of the two acts that seemingly improved most after returning to the contest in 2021. Can she gain even more momentum in the next weeks?
🇸🇲 Obviously, we have to mention San Marino. Whether Flo Rida will be there or not, Senhit has surprised us all. Adrenalina, a song written by an experienced Eurovision team, has taken the fans by storm. It’s still in second place on the MyEurovisionScoreboard App and they find themselves at #12 with the bookmakers – much higher than last year’s #33. It is also the highest San Marino have been in the odds since the release of Crisalide (Vola) by Valentina Monetta in 2013.
🇬🇪 Georgia on the other hand is the country with the biggest decline despite keeping the same artist. Germany have also dropped from #10 to #31 comparing 2020 and 2021, but they’re not sending the same singer. Tornike Kipiani however is returning for Georgia. His song You is down in 32nd place, much lower than his 2020 entry Take Me As I Am was at this point in the season.

Our baseline measurement

As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, it’s important to determine our starting point. For that, we’ll list the 39 entries and see how they’re doing below. We’ll highlight some of the interesting cases from the national final season here as well. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available.

For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.

Disclaimer: Odds can change fast! If you look at the current odds, you may see changes in the upcoming days. We will provide you with an update next week.

Country	Entry	21/03
1. Malta	Destiny – Je me casse	1
2. Switzerland	Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers	2
3. France	Barbara Pravi – Voilà	3
4. Bulgaria	VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old	4
5. Italy	Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni	5
6. Sweden	Tusse – Voices	6
7. Lithuania	The Roop – Discoteque	7
8. Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years	8
9. Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo	9
10. Finland	Blind Channel – Dark Side	10
11. Norway	TIX – Fallen Angel	11
12. San Marino	Senhit – Adrenalina	12
13. Russia	Manizha – Russian Woman	13
14. Moldova	Natalia Gordienko – Sugar	14
15. Greece	Stefania – Last Dance	15
16. Romania	ROXEN – Amnesia	16
17. Azerbaijan	Efendi – Mata Hari	17
18. Belgium	Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place	18
19. Ukraine	Go_A – Shum	19
20. Croatia	Albina – Tick-Tock	20
21. United Kingdom	James Newman – Embers	21
22. Australia	Montaigne – Technicolour	22
23. Austria	Vincent Bueno – Amen	23
24. Israel	Eden Alene – Set Me Free	24
25. Poland	Rafał – The Ride	25
26. Latvia	Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising	26
27. Portugal	The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side	27
28. Denmark	Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden	28
29. The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age	29
30. Ireland	Lesley Roy – Maps	30
31. Germany	Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate	31
32. Georgia	Tornike Kipiani – You	32
33. Serbia	Hurricane – Loco Loco	33
34. North Macedonia	Vasil – Here I Stand	34
35. Belarus	Galasy Zmesta – TBA	35
36. Estonia	Uku Suviste – The Lucky One	36
37. Slovenia	Ana Soklič – Amen	37
38. Czech Republic	Benny Cristo – Omaga	38
39. Spain	Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme	39
40. Albania	Anxhela Peristeri – Karma	40