Last year, we introduced XTRA Odds to you all. In recent years, bookmakers have become more and more important in our Eurovision world. We can see who the favourites are and who’s not going to have to worry about the expenses of hosting Eurovision next year. So, we’ve brought our feature back. Welcome to XTRA Odds!
Until the contest arrives, we’ll be providing you with a weekly update of what the bookmakers see as likely winners in Rotterdam. We’ll be posting these articles every week. This way, we hope to provide you with a good insight in how the favourites change from week to week. Where does the money go?
This first article will be all about our baseline measurement. Now, with Russia’s song out, we have all 41 entries taking part at the Eurovision Song Contest. So today, we’ll see the first update of the year.
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our baseline measurement, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Bulgaria are noted as the favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for ever €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Victoria does indeed win. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Slovenia. Sadly, Ana Soklič finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 501/1. If Ana Soklič were to win Eurovision 2020, you’d get €501 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song. They respond to what is happening. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Ireland to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than San Marino and Latvia.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the odds provided by EurovisionWorld. We will use fractional statistics for the posts.
Analysis: 13 March
In every article we post about the odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. However, analysing a baseline measurement means we need to look at the big favourites – establishing who are close together at the top, but also which countries are lower on the list than they usually are. So here goes!
- 🇧🇬 Bulgaria are currently the #1. However, it is incredibly close at the top. Last year, we saw the Netherlands running away quite soon, establishing themselves as a clear favourite. This year, we’re looking at a four way battle with a big pack following closely. Behind Bulgaria, we see the early national final season favourites Lithuania and Iceland.
- 🇨🇭 Splitting the national final favourites Lithuania and Iceland, we see the resurgent Switzerland. For the second year in a row, their internal selection leads to them being high up with the bookies, this time with their French ballad, Répondez-Moi by Gjon’s Tears.
- 🇸🇪 We’re used to seeing Sweden right at the top until the final stages. Despite a lot of happiness about The Mamas winning Melodifestivalen 2020 last week, they’re slipping down. For the first time in a few years, we now see Sweden outside the top ten, in twelfth.
- 🇺🇦 Another welcome guest in the final is Ukraine. Whenever they were in a semi, they’ve made it through. Bookmakers usually respond to their status as well, as we previously explained. Not this year, however: Despite a revamp, Solovey is only in 28th place.
Our baseline measurement
As we’ll be looking at the changes over the next few weeks, it’s important to determine our starting point. For that, we’ll list the 41 entries and see how they’re doing below. We’ll highlight some of the interesting cases from the national final season here as well. Countries are ranked by the shortest and longest odds available.
For this, we have used the available odds on EurovisionWorld.com. We advise you to look at the odds there if you’re interested in those. We will only focus on the ranking of each country in our article.
|1. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Tears Getting Sober||1|
|2. Lithuania||The Roop – On Fire||2|
|3. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Répondez-Moi||3|
|4. Iceland||Daði Freyr & Gagnamagnið – Think About Things||4|
|5. Russia||Little Big – Uno||5|
|6. Romania||Roxen – Alcohol You||6|
|7. Italy||Diodato – Fai Rumore||7|
|8. Malta||Destiny – All Of My Love||8|
|9. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Cleopatra||9|
|10. Germany||Ben Dolic – Violent Thing||10|
|11. Norway||Ulrikke – Attention||11|
|12. Sweden||The Mamas – Move||12|
|13. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Grow||13|
|14. Denmark||Ben & Tan – YES||14|
|15. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – Take Me As I Am||15|
|16. Australia||Montainge – Don’t Break Me||16|
|17. Belgium||Hooverphonic – Release Me||17|
|18. Greece||Stefania – SUPERG!RL||18|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Feker Libi||19|
|20. Poland||Alicja Szemplinska – Empires||20|
|21. Finland||Aksel Kankaanranta – Looking Back||21|
|22. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Story Of My Life||22|
|23. Serbia||Hurricane – Hasta La Vista||23|
|24. United Kingdom||James Newman – My Last Breath||24|
|25. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Kemama||25|
|26. North Macedonia||Vasil – You||26|
|27. France||Tom Leeb – Mon Alliée (The Best In Me)||27|
|28. Ukraine||Go_A – Solovey||28|
|29. Armenia||Athena Manoukian – Chains On You||29|
|30. Albania||Arilena Ara – Fall From The Sky||30|
|31. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Alive||31|
|32. Cyprus||Sandro – Running||32|
|33. San Marino||Senhit – Freaky!||33|
|34. Spain||Blas Cantó – Universo||34|
|35. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Prison||35|
|36. Portugal||Elisa – Medo de Sentir||36|
|37. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – Still Breathing||37|
|38. Estonia||Uku Suviste – What Love Is||38|
|39. Croatia||Damir Kedžo – Divlji Vetre||39|
|40. Belarus||VAL – Da Vidna||40|
|41. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Voda||41|
What do you think about the current odds? Can Bulgaria take us to Sofia for the very first time? Let us know!