🇮🇱 Tel Aviv 2019
Ahead of the 2019 contest, another record-breaking 45 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2019 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
|1||411||🇮🇹 Italy||Mahmood – Soldi||2nd|
|2||406||🇨🇭 Switzerland||Luca Hänni – She Got Me||4th|
|3||401||🇳🇱 The Netherlands||Duncan Laurence – Arcade||1st|
|4||224||🇳🇴 Norway||KEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky||6th|
|5||218||🇨🇾 Cyprus||Tamta – Replay||13th|
|6||191||🇸🇪 Sweden||John Lundvik – Too Late For Love||5th|
|7||123||🇦🇿 Azerbaijan||Chingiz – Truth||8th|
|8||114||🇮🇸 Iceland||Hatari – Hatrið mun sigra||10th|
|9||106||🇷🇺 Russia||Sergey Lazarev – Scream||3rd|
|10||89||🇬🇷 Greece||Katerine Duska – Better Love||21st|
|11||69||🇪🇸 Spain||Miki – La Venda||22nd|
|12||64||🇲🇹 Malta||Michela – Chameleon||14th|
|13||25||🇫🇷 France||Bilal Hassani – Roi||16th|
|14||23||🇸🇲 San Marino||Serhat – Say Na Na Na||19th|
|15||22||🇸🇮 Slovenia||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi||15th|
- The winning entry was placed 3rd in the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
In 2019, it was the bookmakers who were the most accurate, correctly predicting the entirety of the top 5 finishers. The OGAE voting matched three of the top five finishers, with Russia‘s Sergey Lazarev being the most undermarked by the OGAE fan clubs in comparison to the Eurovision viewers. Nevertheless, all fifteen of the entries most liked by the OGAE poll all qualified for the grand final which is an impressive feat in itself.
Like the bookmakers, the OGAE polls also failed to see the potential of both North Macedonia and Australia who finished 7th and 9th respectively in the grand final. As we alluded to in the aforementioned betting odds analysis, Australia’s innovative staging performance in Tel Aviv could not have been considered when ranking the entries prior to the contest as the OGAE voters had to do. In the case of North Macedonia, their success came largely as a result of professional jury love whereas the less successful public voting score is more in line with the low position in the 2019 OGAE poll.
🇪🇺 Eurovision 2020
Last year, 43 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2020 Eurovision entry. These were revealed as part of the 2020 OGAE Eurovision Fan Contest which included public voting. The top 15 finishers in the OGAE Fan Club voting alone are listed below.
|1||430||🇱🇹 Lithuania||The Roop – On Fire|
|2||304||🇮🇸 Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – Think About Things|
|3||297||🇨🇭 Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Répondez-moi|
|4||226||🇮🇹 Italy||Diodato – Fai Rumore|
|5||197||🇧🇬 Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Tears Getting Sober|
|6||182||🇩🇪 Germany||Ben Dolic – Violent Thing|
|7||144||🇳🇴 Norway||Ulrikke – Attention|
|8||142||🇸🇪 Sweden||The Mamas – Move|
|9||138||🇲🇹 Malta||Destiny – All Of My Love|
|10||134||🇷🇺 Russia||Little Big – Uno|
|11||101||🇦🇿 Azerbaijan||Efendi – Cleopatra|
|12||52||🇺🇦 Ukraine||Go_A – Solovey|
|13||21||🇮🇱 Israel||Eden Alene – Feker Libi|
|14||19||🇱🇻 Latvia||Samanta Tīna – Still Breathing|
|15||15||🇫🇷 France||Tom Leeb – Mon Alliée (The Best In Me)|
- 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds prior to the cancellation of the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
Due to the cancellation of the 2020 contest, we cannot compare the OGAE poll results to the actual results of the Eurovision final. Nevertheless, the entire top 11 finishers in the 2020 OGAE poll were also fancied by the bookmakers by placing top 15 in their bettings odds prior to the contest’s cancellation in mid-March. Furthermore, three of the four countries that did appearing in the betting top 15 were ranked 13th, 14th and 15th which further shows the agreement between the two variables.
The outlier here was Romania‘s ROXEN whose top 10 placement amongst the bookies did not translate to success in the OGAE poll that followed. In addition, OGAE voters were slightly less convinced by Bulgaria‘s VICTORIA and Russia‘s Little Big who were the top 2 in the betting odds at the time of the contest’s cancellation, placing them 5th and 10th respectively.
Now without further ado, it’s time to analyse all of the statistics we’ve collected over the past fourteen years and find out just how accurate bookmakers are in predicting the results in May…
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…