Editorials & Opinion

🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of OGAE voting results: We analyse and reminisce

🇮🇱 Tel Aviv 2019

Ahead of the 2019 contest, another record-breaking 45 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2019 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1411🇮🇹 ItalyMahmood – Soldi2nd
2406🇨🇭 SwitzerlandLuca Hänni – She Got Me4th
3401🇳🇱 The NetherlandsDuncan Laurence – Arcade1st
4224🇳🇴 NorwayKEiiNO – Spirit In The Sky6th
5218🇨🇾 CyprusTamta – Replay13th
6191🇸🇪 SwedenJohn Lundvik – Too Late For Love5th
7123🇦🇿 AzerbaijanChingiz – Truth8th
8114🇮🇸 IcelandHatari – Hatrið mun sigra10th
9106🇷🇺 RussiaSergey Lazarev – Scream3rd
1089🇬🇷 GreeceKaterine Duska – Better Love21st
1169🇪🇸 SpainMiki – La Venda22nd
1264🇲🇹 MaltaMichela – Chameleon14th
1325🇫🇷 FranceBilal Hassani – Roi16th
1423🇸🇲 San MarinoSerhat – Say Na Na Na19th
1522🇸🇮 SloveniaZala Kralj & Gašper Šantl – Sebi15th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 3rd in the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

In 2019, it was the bookmakers who were the most accurate, correctly predicting the entirety of the top 5 finishers. The OGAE voting matched three of the top five finishers, with Russia‘s Sergey Lazarev being the most undermarked by the OGAE fan clubs in comparison to the Eurovision viewers. Nevertheless, all fifteen of the entries most liked by the OGAE poll all qualified for the grand final which is an impressive feat in itself.

Like the bookmakers, the OGAE polls also failed to see the potential of both North Macedonia and Australia who finished 7th and 9th respectively in the grand final. As we alluded to in the aforementioned betting odds analysis, Australia’s innovative staging performance in Tel Aviv could not have been considered when ranking the entries prior to the contest as the OGAE voters had to do. In the case of North Macedonia, their success came largely as a result of professional jury love whereas the less successful public voting score is more in line with the low position in the 2019 OGAE poll.

🇪🇺 Eurovision 2020

Last year, 43 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2020 Eurovision entry. These were revealed as part of the 2020 OGAE Eurovision Fan Contest which included public voting. The top 15 finishers in the OGAE Fan Club voting alone are listed below.

RankPointsCountryEntry
1430🇱🇹 LithuaniaThe Roop – On Fire
2304🇮🇸 IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – Think About Things
3297🇨🇭 SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Répondez-moi
4226🇮🇹 ItalyDiodato – Fai Rumore
5197🇧🇬 BulgariaVICTORIA – Tears Getting Sober
6182🇩🇪 GermanyBen Dolic – Violent Thing
7144🇳🇴 NorwayUlrikke – Attention
8142🇸🇪 SwedenThe Mamas – Move
9138🇲🇹 MaltaDestiny – All Of My Love
10134🇷🇺 RussiaLittle Big – Uno
11101🇦🇿 AzerbaijanEfendi – Cleopatra
1252🇺🇦 UkraineGo_A – Solovey
1321🇮🇱 IsraelEden Alene – Feker Libi
1419🇱🇻 LatviaSamanta Tīna – Still Breathing
1515🇫🇷 FranceTom Leeb – Mon Alliée (The Best In Me)

Analysis

  • 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds prior to the cancellation of the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

Due to the cancellation of the 2020 contest, we cannot compare the OGAE poll results to the actual results of the Eurovision final. Nevertheless, the entire top 11 finishers in the 2020 OGAE poll were also fancied by the bookmakers by placing top 15 in their bettings odds prior to the contest’s cancellation in mid-March. Furthermore, three of the four countries that did appearing in the betting top 15 were ranked 13th, 14th and 15th which further shows the agreement between the two variables.

The outlier here was Romania‘s ROXEN whose top 10 placement amongst the bookies did not translate to success in the OGAE poll that followed. In addition, OGAE voters were slightly less convinced by Bulgaria‘s VICTORIA and Russia‘s Little Big who were the top 2 in the betting odds at the time of the contest’s cancellation, placing them 5th and 10th respectively.

Now without further ado, it’s time to analyse all of the statistics we’ve collected over the past fourteen years and find out just how accurate bookmakers are in predicting the results in May…

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…

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