Editorials & Opinion

🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of OGAE voting results: We analyse and reminisce

🇸🇪 Malmö 2013

39 fan clubs cast their votes for their favourite entries of 2013. In this instance, the top 15 finishers were as follows.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1374🇩🇰 DenmarkEmmelie de Forest – Only Teardrops1st
2282🇸🇲 San MarinoValentina Monetta – Crisalide (Vola)SF (11th)
3269🇳🇴 NorwayMargaret Berger – I Feed You My Love4th
4195🇩🇪 GermanyCascada – Glorious21st
5177🇮🇹 ItalyMarco Mengoni – L’Essenziale7th
6147🇳🇱 The NetherlandsAnouk – Birds9th
7119🇺🇦 UkraineZlata Ognevich – Gravity3rd
8119🇬🇧 United KingdomBonnie Tyler – Believe In Me19th
9103🇸🇪 SwedenRobin Stjernberg – You14th
1083🇷🇺 RussiaDina Garipova – What If5th
1161🇦🇿 AzerbaijanFarid Mammadov – Hold Me2nd
1241🇮🇸 IcelandEythor Ingi – Ég Á Líf17th
1337🇬🇪 GeorgiaNodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani – Waterfall15th
1432🇮🇱 IsraelMoran Mazor – Rak BishviloSF (14th)
1530🇨🇭 SwitzerlandTakasa – You And MeSF (13th)

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
  • 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

It was a repeat of 2012 in 2013 with Denmark easily winning the OGAE poll, the betting odds and the Eurovision final. Once again the OGAE poll and betting odds proved similar with 12 of their top 15s consisting of the same countries. OGAE voters didn’t find the same appeal in Azerbaijan‘s entry as Eurovision voters did, perhaps proving the success of Hold Me was as much down to the fantastic staging as it was the song.

Notably, OGAE ranked Valentina Monetta’s second attempt for San Marino as the second best song in the contest. While Crisalide (Vola) became the country’s best result at the contest, it still failed to make the grand final. Germany and the United Kingdom were two entries that appealed to OGAE much more than Eurovision voters. Perhaps the well-known names of Cascada and Bonnie Tyler created extra attention for those songs. The betting odds similarly overrated them.

🇩🇰 Copenhagen 2014

The OGAE poll continues to get bigger as 40 fan clubs decided who would win the 2014 edition of the vote. The top 15 were as follows.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1354🇸🇪 SwedenSanna Nielsen – Undo3rd
2262🇭🇺 HungaryAndrás Kállay-Saunders – Running5th
3233🇮🇱 IsraelMei Finegold – Same HeartSF (14th)
4221🇦🇹 AustriaConchita Wurst – Rise Like A Phoenix1st
5162🇬🇧 United KingdomMolly – Children Of The Universe17th
6157🇦🇲 ArmeniaAram MP3 – Not Alone4th
7132🇳🇴 NorwayCarl Espen – Silent Storm8th
8111🇪🇸 SpainRuth Lorenzo – Dancing In The Rain10th
9104🇬🇷 GreeceFreaky Fortune feat. RiskyKidd – Rise Up20th
1079🇲🇪 MontenegroSergej Ćetković – Moj Svijet19th
1176🇮🇹 ItalyEmma Marrone – La Mia Città21st
1273🇩🇰 DenmarkBasim – Cliché Love Song9th
1335🇫🇷 FranceTWIN TWIN – Moustache26th
1433🇮🇪 IrelandCan-Linn feat. Kasey Smith – HeartbeatSF (12th)
1531🇳🇱 The NetherlandsThe Common Linnets – Calm After The Storm2nd

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 4th in the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 67% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

Oh 2014, the year no-one could’ve predicted. Or could they? Well not quite, but the OGAE poll placed both of the year’s big surprise packages in its top 15. In contrast, neither Austria‘s Conchita Wurst or The Common Linnets from The Netherlands were considered amongst the top 15 favourite to win at the betting agencies. Both entries were praised for lifting the bar of staging at Eurovision. However, OGAE members wouldn’t have known what was to appear on the Copenhagen stage so all credit to them for spotting the quality ahead of time!

However, the OGAE favourite to fall at the first hurdle in Copenhagen was Israel. Mei Finegold’s uptempo dance-pop entry with a key change satisfied all the traditional Eurovision tick boxes and its appeal to long-term fans of the contest was obvious. Nevertheless, the appeal wasn’t there for the casual Eurovision voters as it finished next to last in its semi-final.

🇦🇹 Vienna 2015

Ahead of the 2015 contest in Vienna, 41 fan clubs chose their favourite entries. The results were as follows.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1367🇮🇹 ItalyIl Volo – Grande Amore3rd
2338🇸🇪 SwedenMåns Zelmerlöw – Heroes1st
3274🇪🇪 EstoniaElina Born & Stig Rästa – Goodbye To Yesterday7th
4243🇳🇴 NorwayMørland & Debrah Scarlett – A Monster Like Me8th
5228🇸🇮 SloveniaMaraaya – Here For You14th
6174🇦🇺 AustraliaGuy Sebastian – Tonight Again5th
7150🇮🇱 IsraelNadav Guedj – Golden Boy9th
8136🇪🇸 SpainEdurne – Amanecer21st
997🇦🇿 AzerbaijanElnur Huseynov – Hour Of The Wolf12th
1077🇧🇪 BelgiumLoïc Nottet – Rhythm Inside4th
1174🇷🇺 RussiaPolina Gagarina – A Million Voices2nd
1237🇦🇱 AlbaniaElhaida Dani – I’m Alive17th
1327🇫🇷 FranceLisa Angell – N’oubliez Pas25th
1426🇲🇪 MontenegroKnez – Adio13th
1520🇬🇧 United KingdomElectro Velvet – Still In Love With You24th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 2nd in the OGAE poll.
  • 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

The OGAE poll did a pretty good job of predicting the qualifiers in Vienna. All of the top 15 qualified, the first and only time they have done so. Perhaps the biggest surprise here was the absence of Latviainside the OGAE top 15. Aminata wasn’t inside the top 15 of the odds either, although considering Latvia’s track record at the contest and the alternative vibe to the entry it was understandable. However, looking back Aminata is considered a fan favourite from the contest. Therefore it is remarkable that Latvia didn’t only fail to make the top 15 of the poll, but actually scored nil points!

Nevertheless, OGAE voters did match the tastes of Eurovision voters regarding Finland. While betting agencies ranked them inside the top 5 to win, perhaps due to the media attention Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät were receiving, the OGAE poll showed that the appeal to the public may not translate. While it is worth noting that Finland would’ve qualified in 10th place if televoting alone was in place, the Finnish band were never in contention for victory.

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…

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