Editorials & Opinion

🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of OGAE voting results: We analyse and reminisce

🇳🇴 Oslo 2010

Now it’s time for the last of our top 5s! The top 5 from the 2010 OGAE poll were as follows.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1220🇩🇰 DenmarkChanée & N’evergreen – In A Moment Like This4th
2177🇮🇱 IsraelHarel Skaat – Milim14th
3172🇩🇪 GermanyLena – Satellite1st
4146🇳🇴 NorwayDidrik Solli-Tangen – My Heart Is Yours20th
5130🇮🇸 IcelandHera Björk – Je Ne Sais Quoi19th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 3rd in the OGAE poll.
  • 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

After two anomalous years, OGAE were back in sync with the betting odds to a significant degree here. GermanyDenmark and Israel were found in the top 5 of both rankings and Norway weren’t a million miles away in the odds either. Interestingly, Denmark took the OGAE victory here whereas the more modern and contemporary Lena was cast aside.

As was the case in the betting odds, the OGAE found limited appeal in Romania and Turkey who completed the top 3 in Oslo. Nevertheless, OGAE did go against the grain by not voting in droves for Azerbaijan. Indeed, Safura was joint-favourite to win the contest as the OGAE poll was being carried out.

🇩🇪 Düsseldorf 2011

In 2011, 33 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries of that year. The top 15 finishers were as follows.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1277🇭🇺 HungaryKati Wolf – What About My Dreams?22nd
2270🇫🇷 FranceAmaury Vassili – Sognu15th
3253🇬🇧 United KingdomBlue – I Can11th
4238🇸🇪 SwedenEric Saade – Popular3rd
5183🇪🇪 EstoniaGetter Jaani – Rockefeller Street24th
6119🇧🇦 Bosnia & HerzegovinaDino Merlin – Love In Rewind6th
7117🇦🇿 AzerbaijanEll & Nikki – Running Scared1st
856🇩🇰 DenmarkA Friend In London – New Tomorrow5th
950🇩🇪 GermanyLena – Taken By A Stranger10th
1043🇳🇴 NorwayStella Mwangi – Haba HabaSF (17th)
1134🇵🇱 PolandMagdalena Tul – JestemSF (19th)
1228🇮🇹 ItalyRaphael Gualazzi – Madness Of Love2nd
1327🇷🇴 RomaniaHotel FM – Change17th
1427🇮🇱 IsraelDana International – Ding DongSF (15th)
1526🇦🇹 AustriaNadine Beiler – The Secret Is Love18th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 7th in the OGAE poll.
  • 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 87% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2011 is considered one of the most unpredictable contests in recent years with only Sweden managing to live up to expectations amongst the front-runners. Eventual winners Azerbaijan placed 7th in the OGAE poll proving that this seemingly unpopular winner did have a number of fans amongst the Eurovision community. Interestingly enough, Azerbaijan was also placed 7th in the betting odds prior to the contest which is just the start of a more striking similarity than ever before.

Remarkably, 13 of the top 15 countries in the betting odds were also in the top 15 in the OGAE poll. The only disagreements were that OGAE placed Austria and Israel inside their top 15 while the odds favoured Ireland and Russia. Indeed, the top 7 countries in the OGAE poll were the exact same 7 found at the top of the betting odds, in a slightly shuffled order. For such an unpredictable contest it is strange to find such harmony between two different variables.

🇦🇿 Baku 2012

The OGAE poll continued to increase in popularity as 35 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries ahead of the 2012 contest. Here are the top 15!

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1375🇸🇪 SwedenLoreen – Euphoria1st
2212🇮🇹 ItalyNina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love)9th
3211🇮🇸 IcelandGreta Salóme and Jónsi – Never Forget20th
4199🇷🇸 SerbiaŽeljko Joksimović – Nije Ljubav Stvar3rd
5164🇳🇴 NorwayTooji – Stay26th
6150🇪🇸 SpainPastora Soler – Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)10th
7104🇨🇾 CyprusIvi Adamou – La La Love16th
881🇪🇪 EstoniaOtt Lepland – Kuula6th
978🇩🇪 GermanyRoman Lob – Standing Still8th
1062🇫🇷 FranceAnggun – Echo (You And I)22nd
1152🇷🇴 RomaniaMandinga – Zaleilah12th
1243🇳🇱 The NetherlandsJoan Franka – You And MeSF (15th)
1342🇷🇺 RussiaBuranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody2nd
1441🇬🇧 United KingdomEngelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free25th
1533🇬🇷 GreeceEleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac17th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
  • 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

In a repeat of 2009, Sweden‘s Loreen was the dominant force in the Eurovision results, OGAE poll and betting odds alike. Serbia was also found in the top 5 of each variable. Nevertheless, as we saw with Verka Serduchka in 2007, OGAE voters tend to underscore high profile novelty acts in comparison to their ultimate Eurovision success. While 3rd in the betting odds and 2nd in the contest, Buranovskiye Babushki only just scraped into the OGAE top 15.

The OGAE poll once again showed a remarkable similarity to the betting odds, with 12 countries appearing in the top 15 of both sets of rankings. However, both of them completely overlooked Azerbaijan and Albania who sailed into the top 5. Nevertheless, OGAE members can pat themselves on the back for recognising the quality of Estonia‘s entry which betting agencies hadn’t seen coming at all.

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…

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