🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of OGAE voting results: We analyse and reminisce

🇳🇴 Oslo 2010

Now it’s time for the last of our top 5s! The top 5 from the 2010 OGAE poll were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	220	🇩🇰 Denmark	Chanée & N’evergreen – In A Moment Like This	4th
2	177	🇮🇱 Israel	Harel Skaat – Milim	14th
3	172	🇩🇪 Germany	Lena – Satellite	1st
4	146	🇳🇴 Norway	Didrik Solli-Tangen – My Heart Is Yours	20th
5	130	🇮🇸 Iceland	Hera Björk – Je Ne Sais Quoi	19th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 3rd in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 60% of the top 5 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 5 of the OGAE poll.

After two anomalous years, OGAE were back in sync with the betting odds to a significant degree here. Germany, Denmark and Israel were found in the top 5 of both rankings and Norway weren’t a million miles away in the odds either. Interestingly, Denmark took the OGAE victory here whereas the more modern and contemporary Lena was cast aside.

As was the case in the betting odds, the OGAE found limited appeal in Romania and Turkey who completed the top 3 in Oslo. Nevertheless, OGAE did go against the grain by not voting in droves for Azerbaijan. Indeed, Safura was joint-favourite to win the contest as the OGAE poll was being carried out.

🇩🇪 Düsseldorf 2011

In 2011, 33 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries of that year. The top 15 finishers were as follows.

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	277	🇭🇺 Hungary	Kati Wolf – What About My Dreams?	22nd
2	270	🇫🇷 France	Amaury Vassili – Sognu	15th
3	253	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Blue – I Can	11th
4	238	🇸🇪 Sweden	Eric Saade – Popular	3rd
5	183	🇪🇪 Estonia	Getter Jaani – Rockefeller Street	24th
6	119	🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	Dino Merlin – Love In Rewind	6th
7	117	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	Ell & Nikki – Running Scared	1st
8	56	🇩🇰 Denmark	A Friend In London – New Tomorrow	5th
9	50	🇩🇪 Germany	Lena – Taken By A Stranger	10th
10	43	🇳🇴 Norway	Stella Mwangi – Haba Haba	SF (17th)
11	34	🇵🇱 Poland	Magdalena Tul – Jestem	SF (19th)
12	28	🇮🇹 Italy	Raphael Gualazzi – Madness Of Love	2nd
13	27	🇷🇴 Romania	Hotel FM – Change	17th
14	27	🇮🇱 Israel	Dana International – Ding Dong	SF (15th)
15	26	🇦🇹 Austria	Nadine Beiler – The Secret Is Love	18th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 7th in the OGAE poll.
• 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 87% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2011 is considered one of the most unpredictable contests in recent years with only Sweden managing to live up to expectations amongst the front-runners. Eventual winners Azerbaijan placed 7th in the OGAE poll proving that this seemingly unpopular winner did have a number of fans amongst the Eurovision community. Interestingly enough, Azerbaijan was also placed 7th in the betting odds prior to the contest which is just the start of a more striking similarity than ever before.

Remarkably, 13 of the top 15 countries in the betting odds were also in the top 15 in the OGAE poll. The only disagreements were that OGAE placed Austria and Israel inside their top 15 while the odds favoured Ireland and Russia. Indeed, the top 7 countries in the OGAE poll were the exact same 7 found at the top of the betting odds, in a slightly shuffled order. For such an unpredictable contest it is strange to find such harmony between two different variables.

🇦🇿 Baku 2012

The OGAE poll continued to increase in popularity as 35 fan clubs voted for their favourite entries ahead of the 2012 contest. Here are the top 15!

Rank	Points	Country	Entry	Eurovision Placing
1	375	🇸🇪 Sweden	Loreen – Euphoria	1st
2	212	🇮🇹 Italy	Nina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love)	9th
3	211	🇮🇸 Iceland	Greta Salóme and Jónsi – Never Forget	20th
4	199	🇷🇸 Serbia	Željko Joksimović – Nije Ljubav Stvar	3rd
5	164	🇳🇴 Norway	Tooji – Stay	26th
6	150	🇪🇸 Spain	Pastora Soler – Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)	10th
7	104	🇨🇾 Cyprus	Ivi Adamou – La La Love	16th
8	81	🇪🇪 Estonia	Ott Lepland – Kuula	6th
9	78	🇩🇪 Germany	Roman Lob – Standing Still	8th
10	62	🇫🇷 France	Anggun – Echo (You And I)	22nd
11	52	🇷🇴 Romania	Mandinga – Zaleilah	12th
12	43	🇳🇱 The Netherlands	Joan Franka – You And Me	SF (15th)
13	42	🇷🇺 Russia	Buranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody	2nd
14	41	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	Engelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free	25th
15	33	🇬🇷 Greece	Eleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac	17th

Analysis

• The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
• 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
• 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
• 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

In a repeat of 2009, Sweden‘s Loreen was the dominant force in the Eurovision results, OGAE poll and betting odds alike. Serbia was also found in the top 5 of each variable. Nevertheless, as we saw with Verka Serduchka in 2007, OGAE voters tend to underscore high profile novelty acts in comparison to their ultimate Eurovision success. While 3rd in the betting odds and 2nd in the contest, Buranovskiye Babushki only just scraped into the OGAE top 15.

The OGAE poll once again showed a remarkable similarity to the betting odds, with 12 countries appearing in the top 15 of both sets of rankings. However, both of them completely overlooked Azerbaijan and Albania who sailed into the top 5. Nevertheless, OGAE members can pat themselves on the back for recognising the quality of Estonia‘s entry which betting agencies hadn’t seen coming at all.

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…