🇸🇪 Stockholm 2016
Ahead of the 2016 contest, 43 fan clubs submitted their top 10s in order to find out the winner of the 2016 OGAE poll. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 425 | 🇫🇷 France | Amir – J’ai cherché | 6th |
2 | 392 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Sergey Lazarev – You Are The Only One | 3rd |
3 | 280 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Dami Im – Sound Of Silence | 2nd |
4 | 175 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Poli Genova – If Love Was A Crime | 4th |
5 | 170 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Francesca Michielin – No Degree Of Separation | 16th |
6 | 155 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Barei – Say Yay! | 22nd |
7 | 128 | 🇦🇹 Austria | ZOË – Loin d’ici | 13th |
8 | 110 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | Justs – Heartbeat | 15th |
9 | 88 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Jamala – 1944 | 1st |
10 | 80 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | Freddie – Pioneer | 19th |
11 | 79 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Frans – If I Were Sorry | 5th |
12 | 63 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | Nina Kraljić – Lighthouse | 23rd |
13 | 59 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Minus One – Alter Ego | 21st |
14 | 44 | 🇮🇸 Iceland | Greta Salóme – Hear Them Calling | SF (14th) |
15 | 42 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | Sanja Vučić ZAA – Goodbye (Shelter) | 18th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 9th in the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
2016 was perhaps the most impressive display from OGAE voters in matching their taste with the ultimate Eurovision voter favourites. 3 of the top 5 at Eurovision were in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and France was one place away from making it a record-breaking four. Amongst the highest finishers in Stockholm, Armenia is an entry completely overlooked by OGAE voters. LoveWave is a very alternative entry that many fans agree didn’t reach its potential until the live performance at the contest. Therefore, Iveta Mukuchyan’s poor showing in the OGAE poll perhaps isn’t unexpected.
However, one entry that OGAE voters did see the appeal of was Austria. ZOË was never fancied by the betting agencies to finish highly. Nevertheless, the OGAE poll signified that Loin d’ici did have an appeal and that appeal translated to the casual Eurovision viewer, perhaps unexpectedly for some (including me, although it was a very pleasing surprise!).
🇺🇦 Kyiv 2017
In 2017, a record-breaking 44 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2017 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 497 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Francesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma | 6th |
2 | 335 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Blanche – City Lights | 4th |
3 | 308 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Robin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On | 5th |
4 | 277 | 🇫🇷 France | Alma – Requiem | 12th |
5 | 242 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Koit Toome & Laura – Verona | SF (14th) |
6 | 122 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | Salvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois | 1st |
7 | 120 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | Kristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess | 2nd |
8 | 107 | 🇲🇰 F.Y.R. Macedonia | Jana Burčeska – Dance Alone | SF (15th) |
9 | 102 | 🇮🇱 Israel | IMRI – I Feel Alive | 23rd |
10 | 64 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Norma John – Blackbird | SF (12th) |
11 | 43 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Anja – Where I Am | 20th |
12 | 41 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Timebelle – Apollo | SF (12th) |
13 | 40 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | Joci Pápai – Origo | 8th |
14 | 36 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Isaiah – Don’t Come Easy | 9th |
15 | 34 | 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | Dihaj – Skeletons | 14th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 6th in the OGAE poll.
- 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
2017 was very hit or miss for our OGAE voters with a record-breaking four of the OGAE top 15 failing to qualify for the final. The betting odds didn’t fall into the same trap, with only Estonia of the four sneaking in of the top 15 of the pre-rehearsal odds. Nevertheless, the OGAE voters and betting odds largely agreed once again with only Israel, as well as 3 of the 4 non-qualifers, being favoured by the OGAE voters.
Italy was strongly favoured by both with eventual winners Portugal in contention, but never really considered obvious challengers by both variables. One top 10 finisher that was inside the top 15 of the odds, but not inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll was Romania‘s Yodel It!. Once again, this is further evidence that hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark entries with a novelty aspect in comparison to Eurovision votes on the night.
🇵🇹 Lisbon 2018
In 2018, 44 fan clubs once again voted for their favourite 2018 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.
Rank | Points | Country | Entry | Eurovision Placing |
1 | 456 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Netta – TOY | 1st |
2 | 352 | 🇫🇷 France | Madame Monsieur – Mercy | 13th |
3 | 226 | 🇫🇮 Finland | Saara Aalto – Monsters | 25th |
4 | 202 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Jessica Mauboy – We Got Love | 20th |
5 | 181 | 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | Mikolas Josef – Lie To Me | 6th |
6 | 178 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | EQUINOX – Bones | 14th |
7 | 143 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | Sennek – A Matter Of Time | SF (12th) |
8 | 119 | 🇬🇷 Greece | Yianna Terzi – Oniro Mou | SF (14th) |
9 | 106 | 🇨🇾 Cyprus | Eleni Foureira – Fuego | 2nd |
10 | 99 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Rasmussen – Higher Ground | 9th |
11 | 91 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | Benjamin Ingrosso – Dance You Off | 7th |
12 | 88 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | Elina Nechayeva – La Forza | 8th |
13 | 75 | 🇮🇹 Italy | Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente | 5th |
14 | 70 | 🇦🇹 Austria | Cesár Sampson – Nobody But You | 3rd |
15 | 34 | 🇩🇪 Germany | Michael Schulte – You Let Me Walk Alone | 4th |
Analysis
- The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
- 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
- 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
- 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
The OGAE poll must certainly be applauded for its accuracy ahead of the 2018 contest, at least relative to the bookmakers. Unlike the bookmakers, the OGAE voters at least managed to place eventual top five finishers Cyprus and Germany inside their top 15. In fact, only the exclusion of Moldova prevented the OGAE poll getting all of the top ten finishers inside their top fifteen!
Noticeably, the OGAE poll were much bigger fans of Australia and Finland than the Eurovision voters were. Whilst the bookmakers also believed in Australia strongly, Finland wasn’t as high. Both Jessica Mauboy and Saara Aalto were names well-known amongst the Eurovision community, with Jessica’s appearance in the 2014 semi-final and Saara’s two-time failure to win the Finnish selection before going on to finish runner-up in the high profile X Factor UK competition. Therefore, we should be careful when using OGAE polls to judge the popularity of high profile artists.
Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…