Editorials & Opinion

🇪🇺 Rediscovering 14 years of OGAE voting results: We analyse and reminisce

🇸🇪 Stockholm 2016

Ahead of the 2016 contest, 43 fan clubs submitted their top 10s in order to find out the winner of the 2016 OGAE poll. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1425🇫🇷 FranceAmir – J’ai cherché6th
2392🇷🇺 RussiaSergey Lazarev – You Are The Only One3rd
3280🇦🇺 AustraliaDami Im – Sound Of Silence2nd
4175🇧🇬 BulgariaPoli Genova – If Love Was A Crime4th
5170🇮🇹 ItalyFrancesca Michielin – No Degree Of Separation16th
6155🇪🇸 SpainBarei – Say Yay!22nd
7128🇦🇹 AustriaZOË – Loin d’ici13th
8110🇱🇻 LatviaJusts – Heartbeat15th
988🇺🇦 UkraineJamala – 19441st
1080🇭🇺 HungaryFreddie – Pioneer19th
1179🇸🇪 SwedenFrans – If I Were Sorry5th
1263🇭🇷 CroatiaNina Kraljić – Lighthouse23rd
1359🇨🇾 CyprusMinus One – Alter Ego21st
1444🇮🇸 IcelandGreta Salóme – Hear Them CallingSF (14th)
1542🇷🇸 SerbiaSanja Vučić ZAA – Goodbye (Shelter)18th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 9th in the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 53% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2016 was perhaps the most impressive display from OGAE voters in matching their taste with the ultimate Eurovision voter favourites. 3 of the top 5 at Eurovision were in the top 5 of the OGAE poll and France was one place away from making it a record-breaking four. Amongst the highest finishers in Stockholm, Armenia is an entry completely overlooked by OGAE voters. LoveWave is a very alternative entry that many fans agree didn’t reach its potential until the live performance at the contest. Therefore, Iveta Mukuchyan’s poor showing in the OGAE poll perhaps isn’t unexpected.

However, one entry that OGAE voters did see the appeal of was Austria. ZOË was never fancied by the betting agencies to finish highly. Nevertheless, the OGAE poll signified that Loin d’ici did have an appeal and that appeal translated to the casual Eurovision viewer, perhaps unexpectedly for some (including me, although it was a very pleasing surprise!).

🇺🇦 Kyiv 2017

In 2017, a record-breaking 44 fan clubs voted for their favourite 2017 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1497🇮🇹 ItalyFrancesco Gabbani – Occidentali’s Karma6th
2335🇧🇪 BelgiumBlanche – City Lights4th
3308🇸🇪 SwedenRobin Bengtsson – I Can’t Go On5th
4277🇫🇷 FranceAlma – Requiem12th
5242🇪🇪 EstoniaKoit Toome & Laura – VeronaSF (14th)
6122🇵🇹 PortugalSalvador Sobral – Amar Pelos Dois1st
7120🇧🇬 BulgariaKristian Kostov – Beautiful Mess2nd
8107🇲🇰 F.Y.R. MacedoniaJana Burčeska – Dance AloneSF (15th)
9102🇮🇱 IsraelIMRI – I Feel Alive23rd
1064🇫🇮 FinlandNorma John – BlackbirdSF (12th)
1143🇩🇰 DenmarkAnja – Where I Am20th
1241🇨🇭 SwitzerlandTimebelle – ApolloSF (12th)
1340🇭🇺 HungaryJoci Pápai – Origo8th
1436🇦🇺 AustraliaIsaiah – Don’t Come Easy9th
1534🇦🇿 AzerbaijanDihaj – Skeletons14th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 6th in the OGAE poll.
  • 40% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 73% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

2017 was very hit or miss for our OGAE voters with a record-breaking four of the OGAE top 15 failing to qualify for the final. The betting odds didn’t fall into the same trap, with only Estonia of the four sneaking in of the top 15 of the pre-rehearsal odds. Nevertheless, the OGAE voters and betting odds largely agreed once again with only Israel, as well as 3 of the 4 non-qualifers, being favoured by the OGAE voters.

Italy was strongly favoured by both with eventual winners Portugal in contention, but never really considered obvious challengers by both variables. One top 10 finisher that was inside the top 15 of the odds, but not inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll was Romania‘s Yodel It!. Once again, this is further evidence that hardcore Eurovision fans tend to undermark entries with a novelty aspect in comparison to Eurovision votes on the night.

🇵🇹 Lisbon 2018

In 2018, 44 fan clubs once again voted for their favourite 2018 Eurovision entry. The top 15 finishers are listed below.

RankPointsCountryEntryEurovision Placing
1456🇮🇱 IsraelNetta – TOY1st
2352🇫🇷 FranceMadame Monsieur – Mercy13th
3226🇫🇮 FinlandSaara Aalto – Monsters25th
4202🇦🇺 AustraliaJessica Mauboy – We Got Love20th
5181🇨🇿 Czech RepublicMikolas Josef – Lie To Me6th
6178🇧🇬 BulgariaEQUINOX – Bones14th
7143🇧🇪 BelgiumSennek – A Matter Of TimeSF (12th)
8119🇬🇷 GreeceYianna Terzi – Oniro MouSF (14th)
9106🇨🇾 CyprusEleni Foureira – Fuego2nd
1099🇩🇰 DenmarkRasmussen – Higher Ground9th
1191🇸🇪 SwedenBenjamin Ingrosso – Dance You Off7th
1288🇪🇪 EstoniaElina Nechayeva – La Forza8th
1375🇮🇹 ItalyErmal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente5th
1470🇦🇹 AustriaCesár Sampson – Nobody But You3rd
1534🇩🇪 GermanyMichael Schulte – You Let Me Walk Alone4th

Analysis

  • The winning entry was placed 1st in the OGAE poll.
  • 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the OGAE poll.
  • 73% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the OGAE poll.
  • 80% of the top 15 countries in the betting odds a month prior the contest finished in the top 15 of the OGAE poll.

The OGAE poll must certainly be applauded for its accuracy ahead of the 2018 contest, at least relative to the bookmakers. Unlike the bookmakers, the OGAE voters at least managed to place eventual top five finishers Cyprus and Germany inside their top 15. In fact, only the exclusion of Moldova prevented the OGAE poll getting all of the top ten finishers inside their top fifteen!

Noticeably, the OGAE poll were much bigger fans of Australia and Finland than the Eurovision voters were. Whilst the bookmakers also believed in Australia strongly, Finland wasn’t as high. Both Jessica Mauboy and Saara Aalto were names well-known amongst the Eurovision community, with Jessica’s appearance in the 2014 semi-final and Saara’s two-time failure to win the Finnish selection before going on to finish runner-up in the high profile X Factor UK competition. Therefore, we should be careful when using OGAE polls to judge the popularity of high profile artists.

Our journey down memory lane continues on the next page…

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