Yesterday’s rehearsals at the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam did not upset the odds. Unlike the day before, where Portugal shot up five places, we now see very little movement. We do however see a change in the top five and a new entry in the top ten… It’s time for XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Spain. Blas Cantó finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 13 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇬🇷 First of all, it seems the semifinal two acts at the top of the scoreboard are scoring well today. Greece now enter the top ten. After their first rehearsal, there was some movement towards Stefania and her Last Dance, but that has now made them enter the top ten. It has to be said here: The pack from #8 to #14 is incredibly tight, with all entries from Lithuania to Russia moving around the same odds of 33/1 and 40/1.
- 🇨🇾 Separating herself slightly from the pack is Elena Tsagrinou from Cyprus. Falling out of the top ten and towards the end of the aforementioned pack just before rehearsals started, she is now clearly on the rise. She’s up to #7. The gap between her and the leading group of six is still rather big, so we probably won’t see Elena suddenly fighting the bookmakers’ top five. Winning yesterday’s press poll, as well as a solid rehearsal, has reaffirmed the idea that Cyprus are on to something with their El Diablo and may be an outsider when it comes to next week.
- 🇸🇪 Staying in that middle pack with slightly less good news is Sweden. Before we saw the rehearsals, Tusse was in that leading pack of seven at the time. However, over the past week they’ve been drifting slightly ever since their first rehearsal. The second rehearsal also did not lead to a revival, despite the tweaks and changes. They now find themselves at #11.
- 🇮🇸 In the leading group of six, it’s all very close between Italy, Iceland and Bulgaria. Today, it’s Iceland who re-enter the top five at the expense of VICTORIA from Bulgaria. Today’s rehearsals will tell us more about whether Daði og Gagnamagnið can push forward in the direction of Destiny, Gjon’s Tears and Barbara Pravi.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3||2||2||1||1|
|2. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||1||2||2|
|3. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2||3||3||3||3|
|4. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||5||4||4||5||4|
|5. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||+1||8||7||8||5||4||6|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-1||4||4||5||6||6||5|
|7. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||=||9||11||12||9||7||7|
|8. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||8||7||8||8||8|
|9. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||=||19||18||18||16||10||9|
|10. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||+1||15||13||10||14||11||11|
|11. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||-1||6||6||6||7||9||10|
|12. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||=||10||12||13||11||12||12|
|13. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||=||12||10||11||12||13||13|
|14. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||=||13||14||15||15||14||14|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||9||9||10||15||15|
|16. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||=||16||15||14||13||16||16|
|17. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||19||17||17||17||17|
|18. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||=||20||21||22||21||18||18|
|19. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||=||27||26||27||24||24||19|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||20||20||19||19||20|
|21. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||17||19||18||20||21|
|22. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||=||14||16||16||20||21||22|
|23. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||=||21||22||23||23||22||23|
|24. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||=||30||28||30||26||23||24|
|25. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||=||33||29||21||22||25||25|
|26. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||=||23||24||25||27||26||26|
|27. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||=||31||30||29||29||27||27|
|28. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||27||28||28||29||28|
|29. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||=||22||23||24||25||28||29|
|30. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||32||32||32||31||30|
|31. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||=||29||31||31||30||30||31|
|32. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||+1||38||35||36||33||32||33|
|33. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||-1||34||25||26||31||33||32|
|34. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||+1||37||38||38||36||35||35|
|35. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-1||25||33||33||34||34||34|
|36. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||=||36||37||37||38||37||36|
|37. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||+1||32||36||34||39||36||38|
|38. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||-1||40||39||39||37||39||37|
|39. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||=||39||34||35||35||38||39|
Can Greece push on to leave the chasing pack behind or is #10 as high as Stefania can fly? Let us know!