🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: The Black Mamba rise as Daði Freyr falls

All semifinalists at Eurovision 2021 have now had their first rehearsal. That means that we’ve now seen all the favourites on stage at least once, with the exception of France and Italy, who will have their first rehearsal tomorrow. Portugal are on the move upwards, but Iceland have sort of dropped back after yesterday’s buzz.

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Spain. Blas Cantó finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 11 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

• 🇵🇹 Our biggest winner of yesterday’s rehearsals is Portugal. The reaction to The Black Mamba’s rehearsal was very good. They delivered the biggest surprise yet, with a black and white 4:3 cinematic feel at the start of their song and interesting use of the transparent LED screen on the catwalk. Love Is On My Side has gained five spots, climbing from #24 to #19 and still shortening.
• 🇦🇱 A good response also happened for Albania. Their rehearsal, full of red, black and dry ice went down well. For a long time, Anxhela Peristeri was in last place when it comes to the winning odds. Now, it has to be said: This says not much about her chances to qualify. We probably won’t be heading to Tirana next year, but there’s always been a decent shot at qualification. Yesterday, Karma finished in third in our press poll. She has managed to leave her last place behind and has climbed two spots, to #37. Spain is now in last place.
• 🇮🇸 For Iceland, the news is less good. On Monday, Daði Freyr impressed with his rehearsal in Rotterdam. He easily won the press poll and started climbing with the bookies. For a while, it looked like he was about to join the leading pack of France, Malta and Switzerland. However, a day later and we see Iceland back at #6, where they started the week. Bulgaria’s impressive rehearsal and a close market between Italy and Iceland will have contributed there.
• 🇺🇦 A final, but short note about Ukraine: Their rise is still continuing. Coming from #16 before the Eurovision Song Contest rehearsals, GO_A now reach #9. Today, they only surpassed Sweden, who continue to drift. GO_A won the press poll on their first rehearsal day with quite the margin thanks to the folklore influences in their staging.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

What do you think about today’s bookmakers’ standings? Can Portugal threaten the top 10 spots with The Black Mamba? Let us know!