🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: Barbara Pravi overtakes Destiny as Eurovision favourite

Rehearsals for the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 are underway! All acts from the first semifinal have now rehearsed and… we have a new favourite! Barbara Pravi has taken the #1 spot away from Malta, after Destiny had her first rehearsal. Nothing out of the ordinary after the first rehearsals, we must say, but there are some shifts since our last update…

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fourth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 9 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

• 🇲🇹 We have to start with Malta. The fact that France and Barbara Pravi are our new #1 definitely is down to Destiny and her rehearsal today. Now, mind you that we do not say the rehearsal was bad and that that is the cause of Malta’s drifting. The rehearsal was decent, but it is a common feat that the favourite starts drifting after the first rehearsal. We saw the same with Duncan Laurence, where he drifted slightly after his first rehearsal. The top three this year were so close that any drifting could cause you to slide down a position or two.
• 🇺🇦 The big winner today, as seen in our press poll, is Ukraine. GO_A had a great rehearsal today, where the Chernobyl identity was depicted in an interesting way. They clearly won the press poll with 81 votes, 20 more than our runner-up. The bookmakers also see the potential, with Shum climbing from #16 to #12.
• 🇷🇴 A slight letdown comes from Romania. Roxen received raving reviews for the staging concept from our team today. Vocally however, Roxen was uncertain at points. It seems the reaction with the bookmakers has also been slightly negative. Romania lose three spots, dropping from #13 to #16.
• 🇮🇪 Yesterday, we saw another climber on the list. Ireland have brought a storybook for Lesley Roy. Her song Maps had some mixed reviews, but there is a concept there: A lot of real life props, where Lesley is moving between them in close-up camera shots. They finished in fourth in the press poll yesterday, but see themselves rising from #26 to #23 – higher than they’ve been so far. A good sign?

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Entry	Change	21 March	28 March	5 April	11 April	18 April	3 May
1. France	Barbara Pravi – Voilà	+1	3	3	3	2	2	2
2. Malta	Destiny – Je me casse	-1	1	1	1	1	1	1
3. Switzerland	Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers	=	2	2	2	3	3	3
4. Italy	Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni	=	5	5	5	4	4	4
5. Bulgaria	VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old	+1	4	4	4	5	5	6
6. Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years	-1	8	7	7	7	8	5
7. Lithuania	The Roop – Discoteque	+1	7	8	8	8	7	8
8. Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo	+1	9	9	11	12	12	9
9. Sweden	Tusse – Voices	-2	6	6	6	6	6	7
10. Finland	Blind Channel – Dark Side	+1	10	10	12	13	13	11
11. Norway	TIX – Fallen Angel	-1	11	12	9	9	9	10
12. Ukraine	Go_A – Shum	+4	19	19	18	17	18	16
13. San Marino	Senhit – Adrenalina	-1	12	11	10	10	11	12
14. Greece	Stefania – Last Dance	=	15	14	13	11	10	14
15. Russia	Manizha – Russian Woman	=	13	13	14	14	15	15
16. Romania	ROXEN – Amnesia	-3	16	16	15	15	14	13
17. Israel	Eden Alene – Set Me Free	=	24	24	19	18	17	17
18. Azerbaijan	Efendi – Mata Hari	=	17	17	17	19	19	18
19. Belgium	Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place	=	18	18	20	20	20	19
20. Croatia	Albina – Tick-Tock	+1	20	20	21	21	22	21
21. Moldova	Natalia Gordienko – Sugar	-1	14	15	16	16	16	20
22. United Kingdom	James Newman – Embers	+1	21	21	22	22	23	23
23. Ireland	Lesley Roy – Maps	+3	30	27	28	31	30	26
24. Serbia	Hurricane – Loco Loco	-2	33	31	29	29	21	22
25. Portugal	The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side	-1	27	26	26	25	27	24
26. Australia	Montaigne – Technicolour	-1	22	22	23	23	24	25
27. Austria	Vincent Bueno – Amen	=	23	23	24	24	25	27
28. Germany	Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate	+1	31	33	30	30	29	29
29. Denmark	Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden	-1	28	25	27	28	28	28
30. The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age	=	29	29	31	27	31	30
31. Latvia	Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising	+1	26	28	32	32	32	32
32. Czech Republic	Benny Cristo – Omaga	+1	38	35	35	35	36	33
33. North Macedonia	Vasil – Here I Stand	-2	34	30	25	26	26	31
34. Poland	Rafał – The Ride	=	25	32	33	33	33	34
35. Spain	Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme	=	39	37	34	37	35	35
36. Slovenia	Ana Soklič – Amen	=	37	38	38	38	38	36
37. Estonia	Uku Suviste – The Lucky One	+1	36	36	37	36	37	38
38. Georgia	Tornike Kipiani – You	+1	32	34	36	34	34	39
39. Albania	Anxhela Peristeri – Karma	-2	40	39	39	39	39	37

What do you think about today’s bookmakers’ standings? Can France keep their #1 spot when Barbara Pravi rehearses her “Voilà” for the first time? Let us know!