Another year, another Grand Final running order analysis. This morning, the EBU revealed the choice of this year’s Grand final running order. Let’s analyse what it means for tomorrow night’s show: the winners, the losers, but also the stories, ebbs and flows of the final show of this 70th anniversary.
A reminder of the running order
As a reminder, this is the running order of the Grand Final:
- 🇩🇰 Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem”
- 🇩🇪 Germany – Sarah Engels – “Fire”
- 🇮🇱 Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle”
- 🇧🇪 Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice”
- 🇦🇱 Albania – Alis – “Nân”
- 🇬🇷 Greece – Akylas – “Ferto”
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine – LELÉKA – “Ridnym”
- Commercial break: Professor Eurovision
- 🇦🇺 Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse”
- 🇷🇸 Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj Mene”
- 🇲🇹 Malta – AIDAN – “Bella”
- 🇨🇿 Czechia – Daniel Zizka – “Crossroads”
- 🇧🇬 Bulgaria – Dara – “Bangaranga”
- 🇭🇷 Croatia – LELEK – “Andromeda”
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – LOOK MOM NO COMPUTER – “Eins, Zwei, Drei”
- 🇫🇷 France – Monroe – “Regarde”
- Commercial break: Junior Eurovision and ESC Asia
- 🇲🇩 Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!”
- 🇫🇮 Finland – Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin”
- 🇵🇱 Poland – ALICJA – “Pray”
- 🇱🇹 Lithuania – Lion Ceccah – “Sólo quiero más”
- 🇸🇪 Sweden – Felicia – “My System”
- 🇨🇾 Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla”
- 🇮🇹 Italy – Sal da Vinci – “Per Sempre Si”
- Commercial break: Eurovision side events and Vienna 1967/2015 tribute
- 🇳🇴 Norway – JONAS LOVV – “Ya Ya Ya”
- 🇷🇴 Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me”
- 🇦🇹 Austria – COSMÓ – “Tanzschein”
A reminder on how we analyse the running order
As an introduction, let us remember that the running order is not just slots and historical statistics about them. These are important of course, but still. The main learnings from Eurovision wisdom are that singing late often boosts your chances, especially as an upbeat song and with the televote. Yet slower songs, like power ballads, have been able to win from the latter part of the first half (slots 9 to 13).
But this part of the analysis takes running positions as absolute values. One must also consider the relative positions of songs: who are they performing before or after? This creates the “ebbs and flow” of the show, it can “prepare” the audience for a particular song by raising up the volume and excitement over the previosu entries, and it can also create storytelling moments.
Because of this, we will analyse the order “chronologically”, from start to finish.
Our analysis
Opening up: Denmark’s sacrifice and Israel’s new home
Who should open the show? It’s always a conundrum because it should be song that engages the viewers, that will encourage them to stay and watch. But because of its early position (the earliest one), it is sacrificed on the altar of viewer’s engagement, for it is very difficult to win from there, or even to do very well.
This year, despite a very good performance in the Live Show of its semi-final, Denmark was sacrificed. Being drawn “first half” did not help, as the producers had less choice and it is a song that would work better in the last few slots of the evening. But this puts the nail in the coffin of Søren’s victory chances.
Germany follows in the dreaded #2 slot, which is a bit of an odd choice, even though past producers have been explaining to journalists that there must be no taboo about this position. Known for being a spot from which no winner has come and one occupied by songs who usually ranked quite low, it was often occupied by slower entries. Germany is certainly not that, and will keep the energy up, but it is seen as an uptempo song with little chance to do well, easily explaining its position
Then comes Israel, which is once again put very early in the order after being drawn as “producer’s choice”. Ever since the beginning of the current geopolitical situation, this has been the case (#6, #4 and now #3), likely in an effort to curb its inflated televote score (although it is unsure that it is helping much). On the other side of the coin, you can also see a strong symbol to put Germany and Israel side-to-side, which commentators will be sure to pick on.
Battle of the mothers
There is little to say about Belgium, which is stuck between two songs that will likely overshadow it, and which have little chance of doing great anyway.
Then come a nice little storytelling moment in the early running order: the “battle of the mothers”, although it’s more accurately described as a “battle of the sons”. Albania and Greece, although very different in tone and themes, are songs dedicated to mothers and clearly show it in their staging. But they have different approaches to the topic.
A close comparison in recent history was 2021, with Russia and Malta, two songs about feminism and sexism, being side-to-side, but with two different takes on it (a traditional, systemic approach to partiarchy for Russia, and a more “situational” situation of casual sexism and harassment at a party for Malta).
Greece in #6 is probably not helping its chances to a huge televote victory, and you could see it as a loser of the running-order. Ukraine placed right after it serves as a “reassurance”, just like Portugal did in the semi-final: a calmer song to reassure more traditional viewers after the very colourful and energic performance by Akylas. The contrast between these two does help them: it’s good in terms of relative dimensions, even though it is a bit too early in absolute positions.
Navigating the end of the first half
The end of the first half of a Grand Final is often where we find good scorers and winners, especially when they are slower songs. Think of “Amar Pelos Dois”, “Arcade”, “Tattoo” or “Wasted Love”. The general wisdom is that these songs often do well in the #9 to #12 spots, with the #13 usually reserved for an uptempo song stuck in the first half by the draw. (Note that this year, the first half appears to end at #12 and not #13, though)
This is what makes Australia’s position interesting. At #8, Delta is right at the edge of this area: will it get the same boosting effect or is it too early for it to effectively take place? Delta can clearly win (and possibly sweep away) the jury vote from it, but this could be a handicap in the televote. The dress rehearsal does confirm that it performs after a commercial break though, which should at least give it a boost by separating it from Ukraine, while putting them next to each other in the recap.
Interestingly, the song that probably got the best spot in this part of the show is Czechia. #11 is historically a good spot for slower songs who aim to perform well with the juries: think of Germany 2018 or Switzerland 2021, and of course Portugal 2017, who ended up breaking every record. While this does not mean that Czechia will win with 600 points, it could give it an edge with the juries, to either get closer or get higher than Australia.
Stuck between what could be the top 2 of the juries are Serbia and Malta, who help set up the atmosphere for Czechia: “Kraj Mene” switches the mood completely after “Eclipse”, with “Bella” slowing things down without delivering the same kind of vocal “big moment” that Daniel will, and using a similar prop but with, I believe, a less impressive results on viewers. Once again, we have a great relative and absolute spot for Czechia, possibly the best they have ever been offered in their Eurovision history.
Except that Bulgaria is right after, with no breaks in-between. “Bangaranga” has become a dark horse of the televote in the past few days, and while this will act as a “mood-switch” post-Czechia, it could also reduce Czechia’s televote appeal, which is what their act will sorely be in need of.
The path to Finland
Then we embark on the path to the favourites: Finland. They have not been offered a commercial break right before their performance, but before Moldova. So Satoshi will once again act as an “opener” for a section of the show, kicking some energy into the crowds and viewers, and get them ready for the epicness of Finland, which is followed by a small break to give some breath to the viewers. Linda and Pete are also offered a very symbolic slot: #17, the one Lordi had back in 2006, when their brought Finland its first ever victory.
Before that first break will be Croatia, the United Kingdom and France: the first two sort of lead to France, with the break helping Monroe’s impact during the show. Once we hit the recaps though, “Regarde !”‘s impact will be weakened with Moldova right after.
Closing the show
After Poland and Lithuania, which are slowing down the atmosphere, we get into a series of up-tempo and/or crowd-engaging acts.
Sweden, Cyprus and Italy are followed by a commercial break, after which Norway, Romania and Austria close the show. Of these, Austria was drawn directly at slot #25, so we can’t analyse anything about it directly. Being the host entry, it will get an incredible traction in the arena, which should be translated on screen. Before it come two entries that may be too “adult” for an early-night audience, “Ya Ya Ya” and “Choke Me”, especially for English-speaking audiences.
All-in-all, we’re offered an uptempo finish before the interval acts, and it should be entertaining from a TV standpoint, even though none of these songs are in contention for the win.
Overall analysis: Finland’s Contest to lose
There are, in my opinion, two clear winners here: Czechia and Finland. But Czechia will always find it difficult to find enough televote support to get the trophy. A path exist for Daniel, but it is a narrow one. Australia, with a similar structural advantage (a jury-friendly song) may end up with similar chances, with a slot slightly too early to completely help with its televote. In its case, the path gets more narrow than it was 24 hours ago, but it is nowhere near inexistant.
Finland, though, already has the elements to appeal to both sides of the vote, and is heavily advantaged by the running order, emphasizing this pre-existing advantage.
While Greece and Denmark feel out of contention, Bulgaria could also become a dark horse with the televote, but may lack the necessary jury appeal. The same goes for Israel, although its televote score will likely be inflated again, as has structurally been the case since 2024.
Considering all of this (the potential spread of the televote, the way some of the favourites have been handicapped, etc.), it looks like we are headed to a contest where, once again, the juries will decide the winner, even if their winner may not necessarily be the actual winner. The way they balance their scores for Australia, Czechia and Finland will determine who ends up getting the trophy for this anniversary edition.
What do YOU think? Who is advantaged or handicapped by this running order? Tell us more in the comments below or on social media!
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