Analysis: How accurate were the Press Poll and Audience Poll for Eurovision 2026?

In addition to our annual Press Poll, this year we worked with ESC Insight, 12 Points From America, ESC Gabe, Merci Cherie Podcast and That Eurovision Site to conduct The Eurovision 2026 Audience Poll. Members of the six participating platforms approached audience members leaving the Wiener Stadthalle after each evening preview show to ask them who their favourite of the night was. Now we take a further look into the data from each poll and how they stacked up against the Eurovision 2026 results.

Examining the Press Poll and Audience Poll results

In this article, we take a closer inspection of the three Press and Audience Polls conducted over the course of Eurovision week. On the ground in Vienna, we asked members of the accredited press to vote for their favourites following each of the three daytime dress rehearsals. Later in the evenings, with the teamwork of six fan media platforms, we approached members of the public leaving the venue to ask for their favourite of the night. Of course, these polls are bit of fun. However, they can provide early clues into the overall results. Think of the Press Poll as a potential indicator of the jury results. Whilst the Audience Poll can be seen as a marker of televote potential; with the election night exit poll snapshot it provides.

How do these polls stack up against the results in a year of sweeping changes to the voting system. This year featured the return of the juries to the Semi-Finals and an expansion from five to seven jurors. Meanwhile the number of votes for the televoters reduced from 20 to just 10.

Semi-Final 1

From analysing the data across both polls to the actual results of Semi-Final 1, there was some agreement, at least in predicted qualifiers. The polls accurately predicted 8 out 10 qualifiers. However the variations of difference between the results saw heavy disagreement. Many of the placements being at least five away from their eventual Eurovision placing.

The polls correctly called the positions of Finland, Montenegro and Georgia. As well as coming close to calling the placements of Croatia and Estonia. The polls overestimated San Marino’s chances. Perhaps the Boy George effect and being towards the latter part of the running order. The audience correctly called Portugal’s NQ. Here it was the press taking a bold position on its presentation. Both polls also misjudged the how TV audiences and jurors would perceive Greece and Sweden down the camera. Of course the high tempo entries tend to be biggest crowd pleasers. The odds also expected a higher placement for Greece. The largest variation came from the eventual Semi-Final winner. The polls did not account for the televote of Israel.

In the first Semi-Final Germany were able to vote. Since they featured in second place in the top 10 of ticket sales, we can see how their televotes look in comparison to the Audience Poll.

In general, the German televoters mostly fell in line with the Vienna crowd. Both placed five of the Semi-Finalists in the same positions. Here, the televoters have rated the Nordic entries lower than the live audience reaction. While the audience get wrapped up in the atmospheric party anthems, the German viewers at home find the down tempo entries more appealing. As seen in the comparisons for Portugal and Lithuania. The latter also benefitting from diaspora in Germany.

Semi-Final 2

In the Semi-Final 2 stats, a more stable picture presents itself. Overall, the combined average of both polls successfully predicted 9 out of 10 qualifiers. Only missing the non-qualification for Switzerland. It is important to note that Switzerland were fourth in the list of Eurovision ticket sales. Also a heavily Germanic audience in general. With Germany placing second in ticket sales, and of course the host nation in first place. These are the nations where Veronica Fusaro has am established fanbase.

Everyone predicted the winner of the Semi-Final. Once again, the anomalies present themselves in the underestimation of the diaspora pull for Ukraine. The audience appeal of Cyprus was reflected in the eventual split results of Semi-Final 2 that saw it sneak through to the Grand Final. Otherwise most of the results were within two placements, with Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Bulgaria called correctly by the polls.

Since the Audience Poll was conducted in Austria and Austria voted in this Semi-Final, we decided to look closer at the Austrian televote in comparison to the polls. Also the home nation accounted for the highest number of Eurovision ticket sales.

Naturally, as you would expect for the host nation, we see the most alignment with the audience poll. A total of six matching placements. A further three others just one away from the televote. Much like as we saw in Germany’s Semi-Final 1 televote, the Austrian viewers at home also favoured the lower tempo entries that instilled more emotive feelings down the camera lens that is harder for a live audience to connect with from their viewpoint. Again diaspora plays a role. With Ukraine and Romania benefiting in the Austrian televote compared to the audience in the arena.

Although the UK only placed third in the ticket sales list, the UK televote shows an agreeable nature with the poll. Obviously there is strong support from the UK viewers at home for the likes of Latvia, Ukraine and Romania – three nations with a large diaspora in the UK. The UK is home to the largest Latvian diaspora outside of Latvia with almost 100k as per the 2021 Census. Meanwhile Romania returns to Eurovision knowing that the UK is also home to one of their largest numbers of diaspora with over 200k Romanian-born residents. The main deviation is the 11th place in the UK televote for Denmark.

Grand Final

Finally, we move onto the Grand Final. Overall the combined average of the polls managed to predict eight of the eventual top 10. However, polls failed to predict the winner of the contest, with polling winner, Australia only finishing in fourth. Meanwhile the bookies favoured Finland from its selection to the day of the Grand Final. Although the polls had lower expectations, it was still three positions higher than its eventual sixth place.

Among the notable differences in the results is Sweden. Many expected the Scandinavian nation to continue its run of good form. Yet it seems the infamous, ‘OGAE Poll curse’ where at least one of top four in the OGAE Poll results, finishes outside the top 10, came for Felicia. Over the years we have seen the struggle for female-led EDM entries to make an impression on the jury and televote. Back in 2022 We Are Domi placed 22nd for Czechia with, ‘Lights Off’. In 2024 Kaleen placed 24th for Austria with, ‘We Will Rave’. Thus, showing the difficulty for female EDM to even crack the top 20.

Of course the heavily Germanic audience consisting of Austria, Germany and Switzerland in the top 5 of ticket sales, backed the German-language host entry from Austria. ‘Tanzschein’ and its fun choreography entertaining the arena audience despite placing 24th in the official result. It is typical for the uptempo entries to finish lower in the table compared to the Audience Poll. This is indicated in the results for Moldova, Greece, Sweden, Austria and Germany.

Elsewhere, we see that the polls heavily underestimated the impact of the diaspora vote and televote power of Israel, Ukraine, Albania and Italy. who placed 16, 12, 7 and 5 positions higher respectively.

The pollsters only managed to accurately predict the placement of Lithuania. A total of nine entries were predicted to within three places.

Once again we can delve into the televotes of the top three ticket sale nations – Austria, Germany and United Kingdom. To compare their results against the polls.

Unsurprisingly, It is Austria that is most in line with the Audience Poll as the nation with the largest volume of ticket sales. Overall the Austria televote has thirteen entries within three placements of the poll. Meanwhile the German and UK televotes only have ten and eight within three placements respectively. As well as this, Austria’s televote shared five of the live audience’s top 10. The nearest central European neighbours benefiting most across the voting.

Interestingly across the trio we see a strong aversion in the televote towards the Nordic entries. Although slightly less pronounced in the UK televote. Austria and Germany are the two countries with the largest Croatian diaspora outside of Croatia, which is reflected in the televoting of viewers at home. Similarly these nations also have large Polish, Albanian and Ukrainian diaspora.

Likewise the UK favours its own diaspora links in Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Poland, Lithuania and Romania. Naturally the UK televoters lean towards the English-speaking entries. While showing a stronger aversion towards the non-English entries compared to its Austrian and German counterparts.

About the 2026 Press Poll and Eurovision Audience Poll

You can view the previous results below:

In addition, accredited members of the press were able to follow proceedings during a closed set viewing of the dress rehearsal. Only on-site press attending the viewing were able to watch the full run through. No streams were available either in the press centre or on the online press centre.

The results of all three Press Polls and further information can be found below:

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