The Scoop

Major changes in the betting odds after the running order

The qualifiers of the second semifinal didn’t really put the odds on fire last night. However, the running order sure has. Both Lithuania and Norway have started drifting considerably, with Germany and Ireland on the rise…

Germany and Ireland climb

Yesterday, we reported that Germany’s Michael Schulte had left a good impression on those who bet after his performances during the second semifinal rehearsals. The one minute clip that was shown last night has helped him even more. Add to that that last year’s winning slot, #11, has now been given to Michael Schulte and you can see Germany climbing instantly. Their odds are now varying between 14/1 and 20/1, which means they are now the sixth favourite for victory.

A newly found dark horse is Ireland. Ryan O’Shaughnessy didn’t turn himself into a favourite right after the semifinal. However, he did put on a slow and steady climb with the bookmakers. He was just outside the top ten last night. Now, Ireland is in fourth place with odds between 6/1 and 25/1. This has surely also been caused by a favourable draw. Once again, Ireland have received a draw near the end of the show, right before the hot favourite, Cyprus. This was also the case in the semifinal last Tuesday.

Lithuania, Norway and Sweden drifting

Things are not looking as good for Lithuania, Norway and Sweden. Lithuania have had a few wonderful days with odds as low as 7/1 last night. However, the moment Ieva received a draw as #4 in tomorrow’s Grand Final meant trouble with the bookmakers. A row of drifting odds is now appearing. Odds as high as 22/1 are now available for a Lithuanian victory.

Norway was close to overtaking Cyprus as the favourite on Tuesday night. Alexander Rybak then fell back a little and took a stable second place. Sadly for him, though, it was visible last night that he was suffering from the flu. Soon after his performance, his odds went on a drift. Coming from odds around 4/1, you can now get Norway at 25/1 at many places. He is now down to seventh.

Sweden are also on a drift. It’s not quite as bad as the other two, but it is remarkable. He was never in the top three for victory, but like Alexander Rybak’s odds, Benjamin Ingrosso is now at 25/1 with some bookmakers. Other bookmakers still have him down at 11/1, so not all is lost for SVT’s hope of another victory.

Moldova and Spain collapse

After the rehearsals, press were overwhelmed by the Moldovan performance. The public at home were not as impressed. A Moldovan victory is looking out of sight, with odds drifting to 100/1, giving them a seventeenth place the moment.

Spain on the other hand were steady outsiders for victory. More than the song, the running order made sure bookmakers now have no belief whatsoever in a Spanish victory. The producers have put Spain at #2 in the running order… That slot no one has ever managed to win from in the previous 62 editions of the contest.

The full list with bookmakers

At the moment (14:45 CET, 11th May), bookmakers are offering the odds you can see below. We’ve displayed the best odds and shortest odds for all of the finalists. Cyprus is still in a very clear lead, as you can see below.

Country Best odds Shortest odds
1.      Cyprus 11/8 19/20
2.      Israel 7/2 11/4
3.      France 14/1 9/1
4.      Ireland 20/1 6/1
5.      Lithuania 22/1 12/1
6.      Germany 20/1 14/1
7.      Norway 25/1 16/1
8.      Sweden 25/1 11/1
9.      Italy 33/1 16/1
10.   Estonia 50/1 28/1
11.   Bulgaria 66/1 33/1
12.   Australia 66/1 25/1
13.   Czech Republic 66/1 33/1
14.   Finland 70/1 40/1
15.   Hungary 75/1 40/1
16.   Denmark 80/1 40/1
17.   Moldova 100/1 24/1
18.   The Netherlands 150/1 80/1
19.   Austria 150/1 66/1
20.   Spain 200/1 66/1
21.   Ukraine 250/1 75/1
22.   Portugal 350/1 100/1
23.   United Kingdom 500/1 100/1
24.   Albania 1000/1 100/1
25.   Serbia 1000/1 100/1
26.   Slovenia 1000/1 100/1

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Nick van Lith

I'm one of the founding members of ESCXTRA.com. Eleven years after the start, I'm proud to say that I am now the Editor-in-Chief of this wonderful website. When I'm not doing Eurovision stuff, you should be able to find me teaching German to kids... And cheering on everything and everyone Greek, pretty much. Pame Ellada!

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