Another favourite has rehearsed! We’ve kicked off the rehearsals of the second semifinal at the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 with the first half. Iceland have re-emerged as one of the contenders after Daði Freyr and his Gagnamagnið went on stage. France have held on to their #1 spot they gained yesterday, but what other movement is there with the bookmakers? It’s time for XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Italy are noted as fifth favourites to win. They have odds of 6/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €6 if Måneskin do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Albania. Anxhela Peristeri finds herself in last place at the moment, with odds of 250/1. If Anxhela were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €250 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 10 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. This week, there definitely are some more changes as we see two countries entering the top ten. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
The big winner today is Iceland. Daði og Gagnamagnið won today’s press poll with a bit of a lead over the runners-up. The general reaction to 10 Years is that we may well be heading to Reykjavik next year after all. Soon after Daði Freyr hit the stage in Rotterdam, the betting audience and therefore bookmakers reacted. They have overtaken both Bulgaria and Italy to land at #4. Greece are the other rising stars of the day. Stefania’s augmented reality performance was hyped a whole lot before the delegation left for Ahoy. The young singer didn’t disappoint: Last Dance finished in second place in the press poll and bookmakers are moving her up as well. Coming from #14 yesterday, Greece are now #11 and shortening. How far can they go? Well, how far can they go? There’s a good example, which Ukraine have set. GO_A won yesterday’s press poll with quite the margin thanks to the folklore influences in their staging. They were at #16 before their rehearsal and climbed to #12 yesterday already. Shum has now taken the next step, seeing themselves as #10. Finland have now dropped out, but we’re yet to see them rehearse. The biggest downfall can be found in Norway. TIX and his Fallen Angel were good value for money as #9 and #10 favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2021. However, the reaction to his rehearsal hasn’t been kind. The reaction is interesting, seeing as they didn’t change a whole lot from the MGP performance… In the space of a few days, and also due to others shortening, Norway fell from #9 to #14.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|Country||Entry||Change||21 March||28 March||5 April||11 April||18 April||3 May||9 May|
|1. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||3||3||2||2||2||1|
|2. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||1||1||1||2|
|3. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||2||2||3||3||3||3|
|4. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||+2||8||7||7||7||8||5||6|
|5. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||-1||5||5||5||4||4||4||4|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-1||4||4||4||5||5||6||5|
|7. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||+1||9||9||11||12||12||9||8|
|8. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||-1||7||8||8||8||7||8||7|
|9. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6||6||6||6||7||9|
|10. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+2||19||19||18||17||18||16||12|
|11. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||+3||15||14||13||11||10||14||14|
|12. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||-2||10||10||12||13||13||11||10|
|13. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||=||12||11||10||10||11||12||13|
|14. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||+1||13||13||14||14||15||15||15|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||-4||11||12||9||9||9||10||11|
|16. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||=||16||16||15||15||14||13||16|
|17. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||24||19||18||17||17||17|
|18. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||+2||20||20||21||21||22||21||20|
|19. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||18||20||20||20||19||19|
|20. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||-2||17||17||17||19||19||18||18|
|21. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||=||14||15||16||16||16||20||21|
|22. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||=||21||21||22||22||23||23||22|
|23. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||=||30||27||28||31||30||26||23|
|24. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+1||27||26||26||25||27||24||25|
|25. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||-1||33||31||29||29||21||22||24|
|26. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||+1||23||23||24||24||25||27||27|
|27. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+1||31||33||30||30||29||29||28|
|28. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||-2||22||22||23||23||24||25||26|
|29. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||25||27||28||28||28||29|
|30. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||=||29||29||31||27||31||30||30|
|31. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||28||32||32||32||32||31|
|32. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||=||38||35||35||35||36||33||32|
|33. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||=||34||30||25||26||26||31||33|
|34. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||=||25||32||33||33||33||34||34|
|35. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||+1||37||38||38||38||38||36||36|
|36. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||+2||32||34||36||34||34||39||38|
|37. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||=||36||36||37||36||37||38||37|
|38. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||-3||39||37||34||37||35||35||35|
|39. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||=||40||39||39||39||39||37||39|
What do you think about today’s bookmakers’ standings? Can Iceland threaten the #1 spot with Daði Freyr and his “10 Years”? Let us know!