The dust has settled after the first semifinal. We know how the qualifiers (and the non-qualifiers) reacted to their results. We’ve seen the initial bookmaker reaction. A day after the jury show for the second semifinal, the bookmakers have responded once again. What do they think of the winner of the contest now? It’s time for XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 20 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇨🇭 The biggest winner of yesterday’s show was Switzerland. It all seems to click more for Gjon’s Tears at the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 in Rotterdam. The rehearsal clip was greeted with negativity by fans and bookmakers, but press remained optimistic. Maybe we do indeed need the bigger picture, the full image, to see what Tout l’univers will be like on the big stage. They’re back up to #4, passing Ukraine, Bulgaria and Iceland in the process.
- 🇸🇲 San Marino are still on the rise. Senhit and Flo Rida have now managed to overtake The Roop, landing in a current eighth place. Big rehearsal winners Cyprus have now fallen behind the microstate. The news that Flo Rida will appear on the Eurovision stage, combined with the rehearsals, has helped them with the bookmakers. Even in the press poll, San Marino are the second most likely to qualify, just behind Iceland. San Marino are now a good outside bet to win the contest in a few days.
- 🇲🇹 The odds had been shortening since the semi, but now it has happened again: Malta have entered the top two once more. Passing France in the process after their semifinal performance, Destiny and her Je me casse are now aiming for the top spot. Can they come close to Italy’s Måneskin or maybe even overtake them for that #1 spot, to claim back what had been theirs for a while..?
- 🇷🇺 After an initial good reaction, both on YouTube and with the bookmakers, Russia are now losing ground once again. They were creeping up towards the top ten on Wednesday morning, but now see Sweden and Finland passing them. Manizha loses two spots with her Russian Woman. Is the buzz dying down for the Russian entry?
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||4||5||2||1||1|
|2. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||+1||1||1||2||3||3||3|
|3. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||-1||3||2||1||1||2||2|
|4. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||+3||2||3||3||6||7||7|
|5. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||-1||19||16||10||8||8||4|
|6. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||-1||8||5||4||4||4||5|
|7. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-1||4||6||6||5||6||6|
|8. San Marino||Senhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina||+2||12||12||13||14||14||10|
|9. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||-1||9||9||7||7||5||8|
|10. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||-1||7||8||8||9||9||9|
|11. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||=||15||14||11||10||10||11|
|12. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||+2||10||11||12||11||13||14|
|13. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||7||9||12||12||13|
|14. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||-2||13||15||14||13||11||12|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||10||15||15||15||15|
|17. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||-1||17||18||20||21||21||16|
|16. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+1||27||24||24||17||17||17|
|18. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||17||17||19||19||18|
|19. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||28||29||27||24||19|
|20. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+1||33||22||25||25||22||21|
|21. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||-1||18||19||19||20||20||20|
|22. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||+1||21||23||22||23||26||23|
|23. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||-1||29||30||30||31||30||22|
|24. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||+1||23||27||26||26||27||25|
|25. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||20||21||24||25||24|
|26. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+1||31||29||27||28||29||27|
|27. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||-1||26||32||31||30||31||26|
|28. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||=||40||37||39||36||32||28|
|29. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+1||39||35||38||37||34||30|
|30. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||-1||36||38||37||35||33||29|
|31. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||+1||38||33||32||34||38||32|
|32. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-1||25||34||34||33||37||31|
|33. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||=||32||39||36||39||39||33|
|NQ. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||NQ||20||21||18||16||16||NQ|
|NQ. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||NQ||16||13||16||18||18||NQ|
|NQ. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||NQ||30||26||23||22||23||NQ|
|NQ. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||NQ||22||25||28||29||28||NQ|
|NQ. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||NQ||37||36||35||32||35||NQ|
|NQ. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||NQ||34||31||33||38||36||NQ|
Could we potentially be in for a surprising comeback for Switzerland as potential Eurovision winner with Gjon’s Tears? Let us know what you think!