The rollercoaster ride we saw yesterday at the top of the bookmakers’ winning odds for the Eurovision Song Contest is far from over. The only question really is how many horses are in this race to victory… After yesterday’s rehearsals, the leading group is splitting up ever so slightly. Time to have a closer look with XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 25/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €25 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 15 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇮🇹 Early yesterday, Barbara Pravi was pulling away from her chasing duo of Måneskin and Destiny. However, today we can see that Italy are very close to becoming our new leaders. Zitti e buoni now has similar odds to Voilà and today’s rehearsals will say a lot about which of these two is going to head into the Eurovision week as our #1. They were incredibly close on the Press Poll after their first rehearsal and the reviews for both Måneskin and Barbara Pravi were really good. France and Italy will keep on playing musical chairs for a while here, we would expect.
- 🇨🇭 There’s less good news for Switzerland. In yesterday’s XTRA Odds, we said that Gjon’s Tears was falling behind the leading pack and needed a really good rehearsal to get back up there. Sadly for him and his Tout l’univers, the contrary has happened after his second rehearsal. The complexity of the preview clip did not land with everyone, despite landing in third with the Press Poll. As a result, Switzerland have not reclaimed their spot with the top three, where they had been all along. Instead, they have now dropped below Bulgaria and Iceland and can actually see Cyprus coming up in their rear view mirror.
- 🇨🇾 As we just mentioned, Cyprus are still doing well. Elena Tsagrinou’s odds have been shortening ever since her first rehearsal and winning the press poll after her second rehearsal. There’s no frantic money move going on, but we can clearly see that she is creeping up. BetStars have already shortened their odds for El Diablo to 12/1, with Tout l’univers drifting to 14/1. Cyprus may well be on their way to slowly, but steadily, claim a spot in the top five. The question is more: Who would need to drop out, Bulgaria or Iceland? Fact is, if we want to believe the bookmakers, Ayia Napa 2022 is a long shot, but definitely not an impossibility.
- 🇮🇪 Lower on the scoreboard we can see good news for Ireland. The press were not unanimous in their verdict of Lesley Roy’s staging for Maps, but since releasing the preview clip, there has been a slight move for Ireland. Coming from #24, they now gain two spots and find themselves at #22.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||2||2||1||1||1|
|2. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||4||4||5||4||2|
|3. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||2||2||3|
|4. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||+1||8||8||5||4||5||5|
|5. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||+1||4||5||6||6||6||6|
|6. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||-2||2||3||3||3||3||4|
|7. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||=||9||12||9||7||7||7|
|8. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||=||19||18||16||10||9||8|
|9. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||7||8||8||8||9|
|10. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||=||15||10||14||11||10||10|
|11. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||=||10||13||11||12||12||11|
|12. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6||7||9||11||12|
|13. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||+1||13||15||15||14||14||14|
|14. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||-1||12||11||12||13||13||13|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||9||10||15||15||15|
|16. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||=||20||22||21||18||18||16|
|17. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+1||27||27||24||24||19||18|
|18. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||-1||16||14||13||16||16||17|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||17||17||17||17||19|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||20||19||19||20||20|
|21. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||19||18||20||21||21|
|22. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||+2||30||30||26||23||24||24|
|23. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||-1||21||23||23||22||23||22|
|24. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||16||20||21||22||23|
|25. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||=||33||21||22||25||25||25|
|26. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||=||23||25||27||26||26||26|
|27. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||+1||28||28||28||29||28||28|
|28. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||-1||31||29||29||27||27||27|
|29. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||=||22||24||25||28||29||29|
|30. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||32||32||31||30||30|
|31. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||=||29||31||30||30||31||31|
|32. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||=||37||38||36||35||34||32|
|33. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||=||25||33||34||34||35||33|
|34. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||=||38||36||33||32||32||34|
|35. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||=||36||37||38||37||36||35|
|36. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+1||40||39||37||39||38||37|
|37. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+1||39||35||35||38||39||38|
|38. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||-2||34||26||31||33||33||36|
|39. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||=||32||34||39||36||37||39|
Can an autoqualifier, such as Italy or France, win Eurovision for the first time since 2010? Let us know what you think about Måneskin, Barbara Pravi and their chances!