Yesterday was a marathon, a rollercoaster and quite the ride in the Eurovision world. In the longest day of rehearsals, we saw almost all favourites rehearse in Rotterdam. And to top that… We will by now definitely have seen the winner of the contest. But who? The bookmakers aren’t quite sure and it caused an absolute mayhem yesterday after a quieter day before. So it is definitely time for XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 25/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €25 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 14 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇮🇹 The Big Five bring us two big winners from yesterday. Starting with Italy: Måneskin have been moving around the edges of the top five since being selected. Yesterday they were in fourth, quite a distance away from the leading pack of three (France, Malta and Switzerland). However, after the performance of Zitti E Buoni during the rehearsal, their odds skyrocketed. Italy now find themselves in second place and have separated themselves from their nearest chasers.
- 🇲🇹 One of those chasers is now Malta. Destiny had a bookmaker rollercoaster yesterday. After rehearsing Je me casse on the Eurovision stage for the second time, she reclaimed her #1 spot she lost after the first rehearsal. Her odds were shortening drastically, until the Big Five hit the stage and her stormy rise calmed down. Malta are now in third place, with odds of 4/1.
- 🇫🇷 The other Big Five candidate that impressed was France. The intimate and emotional rehearsal delivered for them and throughout the entire day, it looked like Barbara Pravi was set to lose her first place to either Destiny or Måneskin. However, once she commanded the stage, her odds shortened. She won yesterday’s press poll with a tiny margin and is establishing a clear lead over her chasers. Voilà is down to odds of 5/2 with most bookmakers – shorter than we’ve seen this season.
- 🇨🇭 Seemingly, Switzerland are the big loser of yesterday’s spectacle. Gjon’s Tears has now drifted to odds of 10/1. Most likely, this is not down to people not believing he can win, but the money flow simply paused: The other three above him had a lot of bets going towards them. For bookmakers, it is then interesting to let the Swiss odds drift, as that way, people will be tempted to place more bets again. For Tout l’univers, today’s rehearsal may be crucial to see if he can reclaim a spot in the leading group or whether he’ll be stuck in the chasing pack. The same today will go for Bulgaria. Yesterday’s other press poll winner Iceland seems to be settling for a spot in the chasing pack.
- 🇲🇰 Outside the top ten and down at the bottom end of the scoreboard, there’s a lot of movement going on. North Macedonia record their lowest placing to date, with Vasil now at #36 after his second rehearsal. Coming from as high as #24 before the contest, they seem to be making the biggest drop this year.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||2||2||1||1||1|
|2. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||+2||5||4||4||5||4||4|
|3. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||-1||1||1||1||2||2||2|
|4. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||-1||2||3||3||3||3||3|
|5. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||=||8||8||5||4||6||5|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||=||4||5||6||6||5||6|
|7. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||=||9||12||9||7||7||7|
|8. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+1||19||18||16||10||9||9|
|9. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||-1||7||7||8||8||8||8|
|10. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||=||15||10||14||11||11||10|
|11. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||+1||10||13||11||12||12||12|
|12. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||-1||6||6||7||9||10||11|
|13. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||=||12||11||12||13||13||13|
|14. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||=||13||15||15||14||14||14|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||9||10||15||15||15|
|16. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||+2||20||22||21||18||18||18|
|17. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||-1||16||14||13||16||16||16|
|18. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+1||27||27||24||24||19||19|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||-2||24||17||17||17||17||17|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||20||19||19||20||20|
|21. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||19||18||20||21||21|
|22. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||+1||21||23||23||22||23||23|
|23. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||16||20||21||22||22|
|24. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||=||30||30||26||23||24||24|
|25. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||=||33||21||22||25||25||25|
|26. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||=||23||25||27||26||26||26|
|27. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||=||31||29||29||27||27||27|
|28. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||=||28||28||28||29||28||28|
|29. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||=||22||24||25||28||29||29|
|30. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||=||26||32||32||31||30||30|
|31. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||=||29||31||30||30||31||31|
|32. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||+2||37||38||36||35||35||34|
|33. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||+2||25||33||34||34||34||35|
|34. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||-2||38||36||33||32||33||32|
|35. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||+1||36||37||38||37||36||36|
|36. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||-3||34||26||31||33||32||33|
|37. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+1||40||39||37||39||37||38|
|38. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+1||39||35||35||38||39||39|
|39. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||-2||32||34||39||36||38||37|
Can an autoqualifier, such as Italy or France, win Eurovision for the first time since 2010? Let us know what you think about Måneskin, Barbara Pravi and their chances!