Betting OddsESCXTRA: Live from Rotterdam

🇪🇺 XTRA Odds: Måneskin claim #2 behind Barbara Pravi in rollercoaster ride at the top

The race at the top looking like a six or seven horse race to win Eurovision

Yesterday was a marathon, a rollercoaster and quite the ride in the Eurovision world. In the longest day of rehearsals, we saw almost all favourites rehearse in Rotterdam. And to top that… We will by now definitely have seen the winner of the contest. But who? The bookmakers aren’t quite sure and it caused an absolute mayhem yesterday after a quieter day before. So it is definitely time for XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 25/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €25 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 14 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

  • 🇮🇹 The Big Five bring us two big winners from yesterday. Starting with Italy: Måneskin have been moving around the edges of the top five since being selected. Yesterday they were in fourth, quite a distance away from the leading pack of three (France, Malta and Switzerland). However, after the performance of Zitti E Buoni during the rehearsal, their odds skyrocketed. Italy now find themselves in second place and have separated themselves from their nearest chasers.
  • 🇲🇹 One of those chasers is now Malta. Destiny had a bookmaker rollercoaster yesterday. After rehearsing Je me casse on the Eurovision stage for the second time, she reclaimed her #1 spot she lost after the first rehearsal. Her odds were shortening drastically, until the Big Five hit the stage and her stormy rise calmed down. Malta are now in third place, with odds of 4/1.
  • 🇫🇷 The other Big Five candidate that impressed was France. The intimate and emotional rehearsal delivered for them and throughout the entire day, it looked like Barbara Pravi was set to lose her first place to either Destiny or Måneskin. However, once she commanded the stage, her odds shortened. She won yesterday’s press poll with a tiny margin and is establishing a clear lead over her chasers. Voilà is down to odds of 5/2 with most bookmakers – shorter than we’ve seen this season.
  • 🇨🇭 Seemingly, Switzerland are the big loser of yesterday’s spectacle. Gjon’s Tears has now drifted to odds of 10/1. Most likely, this is not down to people not believing he can win, but the money flow simply paused: The other three above him had a lot of bets going towards them. For bookmakers, it is then interesting to let the Swiss odds drift, as that way, people will be tempted to place more bets again. For Tout l’univers, today’s rehearsal may be crucial to see if he can reclaim a spot in the leading group or whether he’ll be stuck in the chasing pack. The same today will go for Bulgaria. Yesterday’s other press poll winner Iceland seems to be settling for a spot in the chasing pack.
  • 🇲🇰 Outside the top ten and down at the bottom end of the scoreboard, there’s a lot of movement going on. North Macedonia record their lowest placing to date, with Vasil now at #36 after his second rehearsal. Coming from as high as #24 before the contest, they seem to be making the biggest drop this year.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryEntryChange21/0318/0403/0510/0512/0513/05
1. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà=322111
2. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni+2544544
3. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse-1111222
4. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers-1233333
5. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years=885465
6. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old=456656
7. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo=9129777
8. UkraineGo_A – Shum+11918161099
9. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque-1778888
10. GreeceStefania – Last Dance=151014111110
11. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side+1101311121212
12. SwedenTusse – Voices-166791011
13. San MarinoSenhit – Adrenalina=121112131313
14. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman=131515141414
15. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel=11910151515
16. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-Tock+2202221181818
17. RomaniaROXEN – Amnesia-1161413161616
18. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side+1272724241919
19. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free-2241717171717
20. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place=182019192020
21. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari=171918202121
22. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers+1212323222323
23. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar-1141620212222
24. IrelandLesley Roy – Maps=303026232424
25. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco=332122252525
26. AustriaVincent Bueno – Amen=232527262626
27. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate=312929272727
28. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden=282828292828
29. AustraliaMontaigne – Technicolour=222425282929
30. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising=263232313030
31. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age=293130303131
32. SloveniaAna Soklič – Amen+2373836353534
33. PolandRafał – The Ride+2253334343435
34. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – Omaga-2383633323332
35. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky One+1363738373636
36. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I Stand-3342631333233
37. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma+1403937393738
38. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme+1393535383939
39. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – You-2323439363837

Can an autoqualifier, such as Italy or France, win Eurovision for the first time since 2010? Let us know what you think about Måneskin, Barbara Pravi and their chances!

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