Betting OddsESCXTRA: Live from Rotterdam

XTRA Odds: Finland emerge as outsiders with Italy as favourites

Portugal shooting up to #8 on final night

Rock on, Europe! In today’s XTRA Odds, the final one before we kick off the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021, we see Italy as our #1 favourite, but fellow rock fans in Finland are now creeping up the table. It’s time, for a final run, of XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 20 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not – right before the final?

  • 🇫🇮 Finland are powering on, everybody… Blind Channel were close to the top ten for the entire duration of the season, but now, they are here to stay. Thanks to a good running order slot, even though no one has ever won from it, and a solid semi performance, Dark Side is now the #7 to win.
  • 🇮🇹 Italy are still on top and are pulling away. Måneskin are not letting go of that leading position and that means… they are the ones to beat tonight. Zitti e buoni will need a good jury result and a good televoting result to make it through, but will both votings agree? Italy emerged as a favourite later in the season, only taking the #1 spot after the rehearsals.
  • 🇵🇹 Also very good news for another band led by a male vocalist: Portugal. The Black Mamba are the biggest winners this time around. Coming from #17 before the semifinal, Love Is On My Side is now the #8 to win. If you’re looking for a surprise jury winner tonight, this may well be your best bet.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryEntryChange21/0303/0510/0515/0517/0519/0520/05
1. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni=5452111
2. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà+13211223
3. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse-11123332
4. UkraineGo_A – Shum+11916108845
5. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers-12336774
6. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years=8544456
7. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side+510111211131412
8. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side+927242417171717
9. San MarinoSenhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina-11212131414108
10. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque=78899910
11. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo-29977589
12. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old-54665667
13. SwedenTusse – Voices=67912121313
14. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel+111101515151515
15. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman-113151413111214
16. GreeceStefania – Last Dance-515141110101111
17. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco+333222525222120
18. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari-217182021211616
19. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free-124171719191818
20. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers+221232223262322
21. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place=18191920202021
22. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar+314202124252425
22. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age+129303031302223
24. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate+231292728292726
25. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma+340373936322828
26. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme+339353837343029
NQ. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-TockNQ2021181616NQNQ
NQ. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På HinandenNQ28282927241919
NQ. RomaniaROXEN – AmnesiaNQ1613161818NQNQ
NQ. IrelandLesley Roy – MapsNQ3026232223NQNQ
NQ. AustriaVincent Bueno – AmenNQ23272626272524
NQ. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is RisingNQ26323130312627
NQ. AustraliaMontaigne – TechnicolourNQ2225282928NQNQ
NQ. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky OneNQ36383735332930
NQ. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – OmagaNQ38333234383231
NQ. PolandRafał – The RideNQ25343433373132
NQ. SloveniaAna Soklič – AmenNQ3736353235NQNQ
NQ. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – YouNQ32393639393333
NQ. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I StandNQ3431333836NQNQ

Could we potentially be in for a surprising comeback for Finland as potential Eurovision winner with Blind Channel? Let us know what you think!

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