XTRA Odds: Finland emerge as outsiders with Italy as favourites

Rock on, Europe! In today’s XTRA Odds, the final one before we kick off the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021, we see Italy as our #1 favourite, but fellow rock fans in Finland are now creeping up the table. It’s time, for a final run, of XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 20 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not – right before the final?

🇫🇮 Finland are powering on, everybody… Blind Channel were close to the top ten for the entire duration of the season, but now, they are here to stay. Thanks to a good running order slot, even though no one has ever won from it, and a solid semi performance, Dark Side is now the #7 to win.
🇮🇹 Italy are still on top and are pulling away. Måneskin are not letting go of that leading position and that means… they are the ones to beat tonight. Zitti e buoni will need a good jury result and a good televoting result to make it through, but will both votings agree? Italy emerged as a favourite later in the season, only taking the #1 spot after the rehearsals.
🇵🇹 Also very good news for another band led by a male vocalist: Portugal. The Black Mamba are the biggest winners this time around. Coming from #17 before the semifinal, Love Is On My Side is now the #8 to win. If you’re looking for a surprise jury winner tonight, this may well be your best bet.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

Country	Entry	Change	21/03	03/05	10/05	15/05	17/05	19/05	20/05
1. Italy	Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni	=	5	4	5	2	1	1	1
2. France	Barbara Pravi – Voilà	+1	3	2	1	1	2	2	3
3. Malta	Destiny – Je me casse	-1	1	1	2	3	3	3	2
4. Ukraine	Go_A – Shum	+1	19	16	10	8	8	4	5
5. Switzerland	Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers	-1	2	3	3	6	7	7	4
6. Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years	=	8	5	4	4	4	5	6
7. Finland	Blind Channel – Dark Side	+5	10	11	12	11	13	14	12
8. Portugal	The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side	+9	27	24	24	17	17	17	17
9. San Marino	Senhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina	-1	12	12	13	14	14	10	8
10. Lithuania	The Roop – Discoteque	=	7	8	8	9	9	9	10
11. Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo	-2	9	9	7	7	5	8	9
12. Bulgaria	VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old	-5	4	6	6	5	6	6	7
13. Sweden	Tusse – Voices	=	6	7	9	12	12	13	13
14. Norway	TIX – Fallen Angel	+1	11	10	15	15	15	15	15
15. Russia	Manizha – Russian Woman	-1	13	15	14	13	11	12	14
16. Greece	Stefania – Last Dance	-5	15	14	11	10	10	11	11
17. Serbia	Hurricane – Loco Loco	+3	33	22	25	25	22	21	20
18. Azerbaijan	Efendi – Mata Hari	-2	17	18	20	21	21	16	16
19. Israel	Eden Alene – Set Me Free	-1	24	17	17	19	19	18	18
20. United Kingdom	James Newman – Embers	+2	21	23	22	23	26	23	22
21. Belgium	Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place	=	18	19	19	20	20	20	21
22. Moldova	Natalia Gordienko – Sugar	+3	14	20	21	24	25	24	25
22. The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age	+1	29	30	30	31	30	22	23
24. Germany	Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate	+2	31	29	27	28	29	27	26
25. Albania	Anxhela Peristeri – Karma	+3	40	37	39	36	32	28	28
26. Spain	Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme	+3	39	35	38	37	34	30	29
NQ. Croatia	Albina – Tick-Tock	NQ	20	21	18	16	16	NQ	NQ
NQ. Denmark	Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden	NQ	28	28	29	27	24	19	19
NQ. Romania	ROXEN – Amnesia	NQ	16	13	16	18	18	NQ	NQ
NQ. Ireland	Lesley Roy – Maps	NQ	30	26	23	22	23	NQ	NQ
NQ. Austria	Vincent Bueno – Amen	NQ	23	27	26	26	27	25	24
NQ. Latvia	Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising	NQ	26	32	31	30	31	26	27
NQ. Australia	Montaigne – Technicolour	NQ	22	25	28	29	28	NQ	NQ
NQ. Estonia	Uku Suviste – The Lucky One	NQ	36	38	37	35	33	29	30
NQ. Czech Republic	Benny Cristo – Omaga	NQ	38	33	32	34	38	32	31
NQ. Poland	Rafał – The Ride	NQ	25	34	34	33	37	31	32
NQ. Slovenia	Ana Soklič – Amen	NQ	37	36	35	32	35	NQ	NQ
NQ. Georgia	Tornike Kipiani – You	NQ	32	39	36	39	39	33	33
NQ. North Macedonia	Vasil – Here I Stand	NQ	34	31	33	38	36	NQ	NQ