Rock on, Europe! In today’s XTRA Odds, the final one before we kick off the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2021, we see Italy as our #1 favourite, but fellow rock fans in Finland are now creeping up the table. It’s time, for a final run, of XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as tenth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 20 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not – right before the final?
- 🇫🇮 Finland are powering on, everybody… Blind Channel were close to the top ten for the entire duration of the season, but now, they are here to stay. Thanks to a good running order slot, even though no one has ever won from it, and a solid semi performance, Dark Side is now the #7 to win.
- 🇮🇹 Italy are still on top and are pulling away. Måneskin are not letting go of that leading position and that means… they are the ones to beat tonight. Zitti e buoni will need a good jury result and a good televoting result to make it through, but will both votings agree? Italy emerged as a favourite later in the season, only taking the #1 spot after the rehearsals.
- 🇵🇹 Also very good news for another band led by a male vocalist: Portugal. The Black Mamba are the biggest winners this time around. Coming from #17 before the semifinal, Love Is On My Side is now the #8 to win. If you’re looking for a surprise jury winner tonight, this may well be your best bet.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||4||5||2||1||1||1|
|2. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||+1||3||2||1||1||2||2||3|
|3. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||-1||1||1||2||3||3||3||2|
|4. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+1||19||16||10||8||8||4||5|
|5. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||-1||2||3||3||6||7||7||4|
|6. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||=||8||5||4||4||4||5||6|
|7. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||+5||10||11||12||11||13||14||12|
|8. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||+9||27||24||24||17||17||17||17|
|9. San Marino||Senhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina||-1||12||12||13||14||14||10||8|
|10. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||8||8||9||9||9||10|
|11. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||-2||9||9||7||7||5||8||9|
|12. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-5||4||6||6||5||6||6||7|
|13. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||7||9||12||12||13||13|
|14. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||+1||11||10||15||15||15||15||15|
|15. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||-1||13||15||14||13||11||12||14|
|16. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||-5||15||14||11||10||10||11||11|
|17. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+3||33||22||25||25||22||21||20|
|18. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||-2||17||18||20||21||21||16||16|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||-1||24||17||17||19||19||18||18|
|20. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||+2||21||23||22||23||26||23||22|
|21. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||19||19||20||20||20||21|
|22. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||+3||14||20||21||24||25||24||25|
|22. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||+1||29||30||30||31||30||22||23|
|24. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+2||31||29||27||28||29||27||26|
|25. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+3||40||37||39||36||32||28||28|
|26. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+3||39||35||38||37||34||30||29|
|NQ. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||NQ||20||21||18||16||16||NQ||NQ|
|NQ. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||NQ||28||28||29||27||24||19||19|
|NQ. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||NQ||16||13||16||18||18||NQ||NQ|
|NQ. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||NQ||30||26||23||22||23||NQ||NQ|
|NQ. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||NQ||23||27||26||26||27||25||24|
|NQ. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||NQ||26||32||31||30||31||26||27|
|NQ. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||NQ||22||25||28||29||28||NQ||NQ|
|NQ. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||NQ||36||38||37||35||33||29||30|
|NQ. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||NQ||38||33||32||34||38||32||31|
|NQ. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||NQ||25||34||34||33||37||31||32|
|NQ. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||NQ||37||36||35||32||35||NQ||NQ|
|NQ. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||NQ||32||39||36||39||39||33||33|
|NQ. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||NQ||34||31||33||38||36||NQ||NQ|
Could we potentially be in for a surprising comeback for Finland as potential Eurovision winner with Blind Channel? Let us know what you think!