It is time for XTRA Odds! After a day without rehearsals yesterday, today marks the start of the dress rehearsals. Both the first dress rehearsal and the important jury show will take place tonight in Ahoy Rotterdam. The bookmakers have not yet made up their mind as to who’s going to win this, but we have a new #1… Italy!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 40/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €40 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 17 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇮🇹 We have a new #1: Italy! Måneskin have overtaken France as the leaders with the bookmakers. They are currently pulling away from Barbara Pravi. With Unibet, you can get Voilà at 7/2, but Zitti e buoni only at 5/2. Ever since their second rehearsal and their draw for the grand final running order, Italy have been shortening. They once again recorded a good finish in the press poll, finishing second behind France. With Italy, we have the fourth different leader with the bookmakers since all songs were announced. It started off with Switzerland, then Malta, France and now Italy… A wide open race? Maybe not… Since 2015, every winner has been top two with the bookmakers after the first rehearsals. Does that mean it’s a two horse race between Italy and France? Are we going to Turin or Lille..?
- 🇨🇾 Also creeping up ever so slightly, but clearly is Cyprus. Before the contest, Elena Tsagrinou was on a downwards slope and found herself around the edge of the top ten, dropping to as low as #12. However, the slick performance of El Diablo has brought them up in full force. Cyprus now find themselves in fifth place, two spots higher than on our previous update. There is a good chance for them to overtake Iceland and sneak up on that top three even more.
- 🇷🇺 Russia are also seemingly pushing forward. Manizha’s odds were quite stable at the lower end of the top fifteen, but she’s now on the rise. Russian Woman is not in the top ten yet, but with a win of two spots and a current ranking at #11, there’s hope for the Russians. The reactions to her rehearsal have been good and we know Manizha is an emotional performer – can they cause an upset?
- 🇦🇱 There’s also good news for Albania. Down at the bottom end of the scoreboard, they are today’s biggest winners. Anxhela Peristeri wins four spots and climbs from #36 to #32. Her rehearsal was impressive and that is now being reflected with her odds shortening quite a bit.
- After the second rehearsals, it’s bad news for the United Kingdom. After a while of being close to the top twenty, James Newman now sees his odds drifting. After the second rehearsal of Embers, they’ve lost spots to Moldova, Serbia and Denmark. Drawing the first half won’t help them either, it seems. They are now at #26, three places down compared to our last update, but the chances of them slipping down even further are relatively big indeed. Is the United Kingdom in trouble yet again?
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||+1||5||4||4||5||2||2|
|2. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||-1||3||2||2||1||1||1|
|3. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||2||3||3|
|4. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||=||8||8||5||4||5||4|
|5. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||+2||9||12||9||7||7||7|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||-1||4||5||6||6||6||5|
|7. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||-1||2||3||3||3||4||6|
|8. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||=||19||18||16||10||8||8|
|9. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||7||8||8||9||9|
|10. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||=||15||10||14||11||10||10|
|11. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||+2||13||15||15||14||14||13|
|12. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||=||6||6||7||9||12||12|
|13. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||-2||10||13||11||12||11||11|
|14. San Marino||Senhit – Adrenalina||=||12||11||12||13||13||14|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||9||10||15||15||15|
|16. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||=||20||22||21||18||16||16|
|17. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||=||27||27||24||24||18||17|
|18. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||=||16||14||13||16||17||18|
|19. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||=||24||17||17||17||19||19|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||20||19||19||20||20|
|21. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||=||17||19||18||20||21||21|
|22. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+3||33||21||22||25||25||25|
|23. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||-1||30||30||26||23||24||22|
|24. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||+3||28||28||28||29||28||27|
|25. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||-1||14||16||20||21||23||24|
|26. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||-3||21||23||23||22||22||23|
|27. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||-1||23||25||27||26||26||26|
|28. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||+1||22||24||25||28||29||29|
|29. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||-1||31||29||29||27||27||28|
|30. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||+1||29||31||30||30||31||31|
|31. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||-1||26||32||32||31||30||30|
|32. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+4||40||39||37||39||37||36|
|33. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||+2||36||37||38||37||35||35|
|34. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+3||39||35||35||38||38||37|
|35. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||-3||37||38||36||35||32||32|
|36. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||+2||34||26||31||33||36||38|
|37. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||-4||25||33||34||34||33||33|
|38. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||-4||38||36||33||32||34||34|
|39. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||=||32||34||39||36||39||39|
Are Cyprus in contention to win Eurovision 2021 or should we start looking at Italian hotels? Let us know what you think!