After the qualifiers of the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest were revealed, the bookmakers reacted instantly. GO_A are now creeping up and may be emerging as an outsider for victory. Are we potentially heading back to Ukraine? It’s time for the bookmaker update with XTRA Odds!
How do these work?
Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.
A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.
Shortening and drifting
Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.
Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.
For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.
Odds Analysis: 19 May
In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine are definitely the hottest take of the day. GO_A were in for a treat last night, as they came out of the final envelope. Looking at the streaming numbers, things are looking bright for Shum. The folky electronic entry delivered to us by Kateryna Pavlenko and her group is now up to #4 with the bookmakers. They had been shortening since their first and second rehearsal, but last night really pushed them forward. Are Ukraine in the mix for a third victory?
- 🇸🇲 Even though they didn’t perform yesterday, San Marino are also shining. After announcing that Flo Rida will in fact join Senhit on stage for the remainder of the contest, their odds have been shortening. Adrenalina has now re-entered the top ten, their highest position to date: #10. The money flow is there for San Marino, but can they actually win? They are seemingly emerging as an outside bet indeed…
- 🇨🇾 Things are not looking as bright for Cyprus. Admitted, Elena Tsagrinou was shakier in her vocals than she was throughout the week. El Diablo was gunning for the top three, as she was shortening in fifth place up to Monday. However, after the semi, Cyprus now drop down to #8 – effectively swapping spots with Ukraine.
- 🇳🇱 In terms of positions, the biggest winner of last night were the Netherlands. Jeangu Macrooy sees himself climbing from #30 to #22 – overtaking fellow autoqualifier United Kingdom in the process. Birth of a new age leaves a few non-qualifiers, such as Croatia, Australia and Romania behind, but also moves ahead of competing entries like Moldova. Did the rehearsal clip impress enough for Jeangu to keep shortening for our host country?
- 🇮🇹 At the top, we see Italy are still shortening and leading the pack. Måneskin took the #1 spot from Barbara Pravi earlier on. Even after the semi, we see Malta falling a little short. They are coming closer, but Måneskin’s rehearsal clip of Zitti e buoni may have done the trick to keep them going as the current favourite with the bookmakers.
The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.
We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.
|1. Italy||Måneskin – Zitti e Buoni||=||5||4||4||5||2||1|
|2. France||Barbara Pravi – Voilà||=||3||2||2||1||1||2|
|3. Malta||Destiny – Je me casse||=||1||1||1||2||3||3|
|4. Ukraine||Go_A – Shum||+4||19||18||16||10||8||8|
|5. Iceland||Daði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years||-1||8||8||5||4||4||4|
|6. Bulgaria||VICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old||=||4||5||6||6||5||6|
|7. Switzerland||Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers||=||2||3||3||3||6||7|
|8. Cyprus||Elena Tsagrinou – El Diablo||-3||9||12||9||7||7||5|
|9. Lithuania||The Roop – Discoteque||=||7||7||8||8||9||9|
|10. San Marino||Senhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina||+4||12||11||12||13||14||14|
|11. Greece||Stefania – Last Dance||-1||15||10||14||11||10||10|
|12. Russia||Manizha – Russian Woman||-1||13||15||15||14||13||11|
|13. Sweden||Tusse – Voices||-1||6||6||7||9||12||12|
|14. Finland||Blind Channel – Dark Side||-1||10||13||11||12||11||13|
|15. Norway||TIX – Fallen Angel||=||11||9||10||15||15||15|
|16. Azerbaijan||Efendi – Mata Hari||+5||17||19||18||20||21||21|
|17. Portugal||The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side||=||27||27||24||24||17||17|
|18. Israel||Eden Alene – Set Me Free||+1||24||17||17||17||19||19|
|19. Denmark||Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden||+5||28||28||28||29||27||24|
|20. Belgium||Hooverphonic – The Wrong Place||=||18||20||19||19||20||20|
|21. Serbia||Hurricane – Loco Loco||+1||33||21||22||25||25||22|
|22. The Netherlands||Jeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age||+8||29||31||30||30||31||30|
|23. United Kingdom||James Newman – Embers||+3||21||23||23||22||23||26|
|24. Moldova||Natalia Gordienko – Sugar||+1||14||16||20||21||24||25|
|25. Austria||Vincent Bueno – Amen||+2||23||25||27||26||26||27|
|26. Latvia||Samanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising||+5||26||32||32||31||30||31|
|27. Germany||Jendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate||+2||31||29||29||27||28||29|
|28. Albania||Anxhela Peristeri – Karma||+4||40||39||37||39||36||32|
|29. Estonia||Uku Suviste – The Lucky One||+4||36||37||38||37||35||33|
|30. Spain||Blas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme||+4||39||35||35||38||37||34|
|31. Poland||Rafał – The Ride||+6||25||33||34||34||33||37|
|32. Czech Republic||Benny Cristo – Omaga||+6||38||36||33||32||34||38|
|33. Georgia||Tornike Kipiani – You||+6||32||34||39||36||39||39|
|NQ. Croatia||Albina – Tick-Tock||NQ||20||22||21||18||16||16|
|NQ. Romania||ROXEN – Amnesia||NQ||16||14||13||16||18||18|
|NQ. Ireland||Lesley Roy – Maps||NQ||30||30||26||23||22||23|
|NQ. Australia||Montaigne – Technicolour||NQ||22||24||25||28||29||28|
|NQ. Slovenia||Ana Soklič – Amen||NQ||37||38||36||35||32||35|
|NQ. North Macedonia||Vasil – Here I Stand||NQ||34||26||31||33||38||36|
Could we potentially be in for a surprise return to Kyiv next year if GO_A win? Let us know what you think! You can watch GO_A’s live performance of “Shum” from the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest below!