Betting OddsESCXTRA: Live from Rotterdam

XTRA Odds: GO_A emerge as outsiders for victory after Eurovision semi 1

San Marino back to the top ten after Flo Rida announcement

After the qualifiers of the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest were revealed, the bookmakers reacted instantly. GO_A are now creeping up and may be emerging as an outsider for victory. Are we potentially heading back to Ukraine? It’s time for the bookmaker update with XTRA Odds!

How do these work?

Now, before we kick off with our analysis, we need to look at how these odds work. Basically, the lower your Eurovision odds, the higher the chance of victory.

A quick example: Currently, Lithuania are noted as ninth favourites to win. They have odds of 50/1. That means that for every €1 you bet, you win an extra €50 if The Roop do indeed win the Eurovision Song Contest in Rotterdam. Contrary to those odds are the odds for Georgia. Tornike Kipiani finds himself in last place at the moment, with odds of 500/1. If Blas were to win Eurovision 2021, you’d get €500 for every €1 you bet.

Shortening and drifting

Bookmakers are out there to make a profit. That’s why the more likely events will pay out less than something rather unlikely. It’s important to note that bookmakers don’t just decide how to rate each song – it’s not like they rank the songs by their own personal taste. They respond to what is happening in the market. The flow of money is key here. If a lot of people start putting money on Cyprus to win, it will start shortening – once again, when people bet, it’s looking like a more likely event, so the odds drop. At the same time, if the money flow stops, odds will start to drift, as it seems less people believe in a certain event. The more money goes into bookmakers, the more reliable the odds can be. Early in the season, hardly any money goes in.

Obviously, betting agencies don’t just look at their own screens. They will always keep an eye out for the other bookmakers. They will then follow the trend, to make sure their own balance is fine. When looking at other factors, they will also take into account how the country has performed at Eurovision. That’s why you’re more likely to see Russia and Sweden up there than Albania and Spain.

For our analysis of the betting odds, we’ll be looking at the betting odds provided by EurovisionWorld.

Odds Analysis: 19 May

In every article we post about the betting odds, we’ll analyse the changes we’re seeing, trying to find out where it comes from. Who’s hot and… who’s not?

  • 🇺🇦 Ukraine are definitely the hottest take of the day. GO_A were in for a treat last night, as they came out of the final envelope. Looking at the streaming numbers, things are looking bright for Shum. The folky electronic entry delivered to us by Kateryna Pavlenko and her group is now up to #4 with the bookmakers. They had been shortening since their first and second rehearsal, but last night really pushed them forward. Are Ukraine in the mix for a third victory?
  • 🇸🇲 Even though they didn’t perform yesterday, San Marino are also shining. After announcing that Flo Rida will in fact join Senhit on stage for the remainder of the contest, their odds have been shortening. Adrenalina has now re-entered the top ten, their highest position to date: #10. The money flow is there for San Marino, but can they actually win? They are seemingly emerging as an outside bet indeed…
  • 🇨🇾 Things are not looking as bright for Cyprus. Admitted, Elena Tsagrinou was shakier in her vocals than she was throughout the week. El Diablo was gunning for the top three, as she was shortening in fifth place up to Monday. However, after the semi, Cyprus now drop down to #8 – effectively swapping spots with Ukraine.
  • 🇳🇱 In terms of positions, the biggest winner of last night were the Netherlands. Jeangu Macrooy sees himself climbing from #30 to #22 – overtaking fellow autoqualifier United Kingdom in the process. Birth of a new age leaves a few non-qualifiers, such as Croatia, Australia and Romania behind, but also moves ahead of competing entries like Moldova. Did the rehearsal clip impress enough for Jeangu to keep shortening for our host country?
  • 🇮🇹 At the top, we see Italy are still shortening and leading the pack. Måneskin took the #1 spot from Barbara Pravi earlier on. Even after the semi, we see Malta falling a little short. They are coming closer, but Måneskin’s rehearsal clip of Zitti e buoni may have done the trick to keep them going as the current favourite with the bookmakers.

Full table

The table below displays the position changes we’ve seen since our first article in March. Below each date, you can see how the country was ranked at that update. The first column displays the current ranking.

We recommend viewing the table below on a desktop computer.

CountryEntryChange21/0318/0403/0510/0515/0517/05
1. ItalyMåneskin – Zitti e Buoni=544521
2. FranceBarbara Pravi – Voilà=322112
3. MaltaDestiny – Je me casse=111233
4. UkraineGo_A – Shum+41918161088
5. IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið – 10 Years-1885444
6. BulgariaVICTORIA – Growing Up Is Getting Old=456656
7. SwitzerlandGjon’s Tears – Tout l’univers=233367
8. CyprusElena Tsagrinou – El Diablo-39129775
9. LithuaniaThe Roop – Discoteque=778899
10. San MarinoSenhit ft. Flo Rida – Adrenalina+4121112131414
11. GreeceStefania – Last Dance-1151014111010
12. RussiaManizha – Russian Woman-1131515141311
13. SwedenTusse – Voices-166791212
14. FinlandBlind Channel – Dark Side-1101311121113
15. NorwayTIX – Fallen Angel=11910151515
16. AzerbaijanEfendi – Mata Hari+5171918202121
17. PortugalThe Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side=272724241717
18. IsraelEden Alene – Set Me Free+1241717171919
19. DenmarkFyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden+5282828292724
20. BelgiumHooverphonic – The Wrong Place=182019192020
21. SerbiaHurricane – Loco Loco+1332122252522
22. The NetherlandsJeangu Macrooy – Birth Of A New Age+8293130303130
23. United KingdomJames Newman – Embers+3212323222326
24. MoldovaNatalia Gordienko – Sugar+1141620212425
25. AustriaVincent Bueno – Amen+2232527262627
26. LatviaSamanta Tīna – The Moon Is Rising+5263232313031
27. GermanyJendrik – I Don’t Feel Hate+2312929272829
28. AlbaniaAnxhela Peristeri – Karma+4403937393632
29. EstoniaUku Suviste – The Lucky One+4363738373533
30. SpainBlas Cantó – Voy A Quedarme+4393535383734
31. PolandRafał – The Ride+6253334343337
32. Czech RepublicBenny Cristo – Omaga+6383633323438
33. GeorgiaTornike Kipiani – You+6323439363939
NQ. CroatiaAlbina – Tick-TockNQ202221181616
NQ. RomaniaROXEN – AmnesiaNQ161413161818
NQ. IrelandLesley Roy – MapsNQ303026232223
NQ. AustraliaMontaigne – TechnicolourNQ222425282928
NQ. SloveniaAna Soklič – AmenNQ373836353235
NQ. North MacedoniaVasil – Here I StandNQ342631333836

Could we potentially be in for a surprise return to Kyiv next year if GO_A win? Let us know what you think! You can watch GO_A’s live performance of “Shum” from the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest below!

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